Dylan Beavers

LF · LHB · BAL

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

TOR

Starter

Spencer Miles (RHP)

Stadium

Rogers Centre

Model HR%

11.3%

Model Hits%

68.2%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 1.5+10.6% edgemodel 86% · grade S

Why: struggles vs the Curveball (22% usage, .246 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 1.5	86%	+10.6%	70%	STRONG
Home Runs	UNDER 0.5	89%	+3.1%	90%	STRONG

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Dylan Beavers, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	5-9	36%	-9.4%
A	4-6	40%	-29.8%
B	5-6	45%	+58.8%

Combined 14-21 · n=35 · ROI +6.2% · avg CLV -0.0 pts · beat close 40%

Matchup

Dylan Beavers (LHB) vs Spencer Miles RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Spencer Miles RHP · season · 87.4 IP · 376 BF

BAA

.214

wOBA

.256

SLG

.299

ISO

.086

WHIP

1.14

HR/9

0.62

BB%

6.7%

23.4%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.6%

HH%

36.6%

FB%

26.8%

HR/FB%

11.5%

Dylan Beavers hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	95-399	.238	.378	.140	10	12.7%	29.3%
vs RHP	79-324	.244	.395	.151	9	12.9%	30.9%

Pitch-type matchup

Spencer Miles's arsenal × how Dylan Beavers hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Spencer Miles throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPSinker	34%	96.2	22%	.300
TOPFour-Seam	23%	96.0	16%	.333
Curveball	22%	80.6	23%	.425
Slider	21%	87.6	20%	.319
Changeup	0%	86.2	—	—

Dylan Beavers vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPSinker	131	13%	.360	92.3
TOPFour-Seam	410	12%	.427	89.4
Curveball	109	18%	.246	90.7
Slider	105	42%	.271	81.6
Changeup	146	28%	.342	82.3

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

50%5/10 · L10 · avg 0.8

Our model47% UNDER+7.6% edgeA

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0

Plate Appearancesavg 4.0

Hitsavg 0.8

Singlesavg 0.4

Doublesavg 0.3

Total Basesavg 1.4

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 1.3

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-09-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	6%	—	+375	-2.9	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	A	47%	+7.6%	+155	+2.7	Sign in to save	Sign in
BEST1.5	UNDER	S	86%	+10.6%	-400	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	B	89%	+3.1%	-588	-3.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	6%	—	+263	-0.5	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	5%	—	+800	+1.4	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	37%	—	+125	+2.4	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	6%	—	+700	+1.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	S	26%	—	+130	+0.1	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=457 PA · 2024-03-16 → 2026-09-09

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	95-399	.238	.378	.140	24	1	10	58	29.3%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	16-75	.213	.307	.093	4	0	1	10	22.7%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	79-324	.244	.395	.151	20	1	9	48	30.9%
Last 15 days recent form	9-41	.220	.317	.098	4	0	0	2	24.4%
vs TOR tonight's opponent (full roster)	3-14	.214	.286	.071	1	0	0	2	21.4%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.297

wOBA0.300

delta+0.003 hot

n=308 PA

Spray chart

290 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph cross-wind

Balls in play290

HR rate3.8%

Hard-hit (95+)34%

Avg exit velo87.5 mph

Ground ball34%

Line drive26%

Fly ball33%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-11	5	2	0	1	0	1	2-for-5 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-09	5	2	1	0	0	0	2-for-5 · 1 2B · 3 RBI · 1 R
2026-09-08	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-07	4	1	1	0	0	3	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 3 K
2026-09-06	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-1 · 1 K
2026-09-05	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-03	4	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-09-02	5	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-5
2026-09-01	4	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B
2026-08-31	3	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 R

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Dylan Beavers across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.