Christian Encarnacion-Strand

3B · RHB · BAL

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

NYM

Starter

Jonah Tong (RHP)

Stadium

Citi Field

Model HR%

19.1%

Model Hits%

63.8%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 0.5+9.8% edgemodel 46% · grade S

Why: struggles vs the Changeup (27% usage, .131 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 0.5	46%	+9.8%	40%	LEAN
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	15%	-3.5%	10%	PASS

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Christian Encarnacion-Strand, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	6-2	75%	+91.7%
A	7-3	70%	+120.9%
B	2-5	29%	-13.5%

Combined 15-10 · n=25 · ROI +73.9% · avg CLV -1.2 pts · beat close 36%

Matchup

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (RHB) vs Jonah Tong RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Jonah Tong RHP · season · 25.6 IP · 110 BF

BAA

.220

wOBA

.274

SLG

.350

ISO

.130

WHIP

1.25

HR/9

0.70

BB%

9.1%

22.7%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

6.1%

HH%

31.8%

FB%

42.4%

HR/FB%

7.1%

Christian Encarnacion-Strand hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	166-682	.243	.430	.186	31	6.6%	27.7%
vs RHP	120-482	.249	.444	.195	23	6.0%	26.1%

Pitch-type matchup

Jonah Tong's arsenal × how Christian Encarnacion-Strand hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Jonah Tong throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	55%	95.3	19%	.432
Changeup	27%	85.8	28%	.339
TOPCurveball	12%	78.1	19%	.264
Cutter	4%	89.7	14%	—
Slider	2%	87.1	0%	.336

Christian Encarnacion-Strand vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	166	23%	.423	91.2
Changeup	41	23%	.131	86.6
TOPCurveball	17	11%	.500	87.7
Cutter	29	19%	.211	84.1
Slider	103	38%	.345	93.5

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.9

Our model46% UNDER+9.8% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9

Plate Appearancesavg 3.9

Hitsavg 0.9

Singlesavg 0.5

Doublesavg 0.3

Total Basesavg 1.5

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 1.3

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-09-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	6%	—	+450	-1.9	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	S	46%	+9.8%	+177	-1.2	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	UNDER	A	85%	+5.3%	-400	-3.3	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	15%	-3.5%	+450	+1.9	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	9%	—	+184	-3.4	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	B	7%	—	+475	-3.4	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	34%	—	+120	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	6%	—	+700	-1.4	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	S	27%	—	+146	-4.3	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=730 PA · 2023-07-17 → 2026-09-13

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	166-682	.243	.430	.186	30	2	31	48	27.7%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	46-200	.230	.395	.165	7	1	8	17	31.5%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	120-482	.249	.444	.195	23	1	23	31	26.1%
Last 15 days recent form	10-43	.233	.349	.116	2	0	1	5	30.2%
vs NYM tonight's opponent (full roster)	1-5	.200	.200	.000	0	0	0	0	40.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.345

wOBA0.334

delta−0.011 due

n=175 PA

Spray chart

234 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play234

HR rate6.0%

Hard-hit (95+)40%

Avg exit velo89.9 mph

Ground ball36%

Line drive24%

Fly ball31%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-13	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-12	4	0	0	0	1	0	0-for-3 · 1 BB
2026-09-11	4	3	0	0	0	1	3-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-09	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-09-08	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-1
2026-09-07	5	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-06	4	1	1	0	0	3	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 3 K
2026-09-05	4	1	1	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 K
2026-09-04	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4
2026-09-03	4	2	0	1	1	1	2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Christian Encarnacion-Strand across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.

← BACK TO SLATE

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

3B · RHB · BAL

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

NYM

Starter

Jonah Tong (RHP)

Stadium

Citi Field

Model HR%

19.1%

Model Hits%

63.8%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 0.5+9.8% edgemodel 46% · grade S

Why: struggles vs the Changeup (27% usage, .131 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 0.5	46%	+9.8%	40%	LEAN
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	15%	-3.5%	10%	PASS

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Christian Encarnacion-Strand, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	6-2	75%	+91.7%
A	7-3	70%	+120.9%
B	2-5	29%	-13.5%

Combined 15-10 · n=25 · ROI +73.9% · avg CLV -1.2 pts · beat close 36%

Matchup

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (RHB) vs Jonah Tong RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Jonah Tong RHP · season · 25.6 IP · 110 BF

BAA

.220

wOBA

.274

SLG

.350

ISO

.130

WHIP

1.25

HR/9

0.70

BB%

9.1%

22.7%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

6.1%

HH%

31.8%

FB%

42.4%

HR/FB%

7.1%

Christian Encarnacion-Strand hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	166-682	.243	.430	.186	31	6.6%	27.7%
vs RHP	120-482	.249	.444	.195	23	6.0%	26.1%

Pitch-type matchup

Jonah Tong's arsenal × how Christian Encarnacion-Strand hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Jonah Tong throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	55%	95.3	19%	.432
Changeup	27%	85.8	28%	.339
TOPCurveball	12%	78.1	19%	.264
Cutter	4%	89.7	14%	—
Slider	2%	87.1	0%	.336

Christian Encarnacion-Strand vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	166	23%	.423	91.2
Changeup	41	23%	.131	86.6
TOPCurveball	17	11%	.500	87.7
Cutter	29	19%	.211	84.1
Slider	103	38%	.345	93.5

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.9

Our model46% UNDER+9.8% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9

Plate Appearancesavg 3.9

Hitsavg 0.9

Singlesavg 0.5

Doublesavg 0.3

Total Basesavg 1.5

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 1.3

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-09-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	6%	—	+450	-1.9	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	S	46%	+9.8%	+177	-1.2	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	UNDER	A	85%	+5.3%	-400	-3.3	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	15%	-3.5%	+450	+1.9	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	9%	—	+184	-3.4	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	B	7%	—	+475	-3.4	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	34%	—	+120	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	6%	—	+700	-1.4	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	S	27%	—	+146	-4.3	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=730 PA · 2023-07-17 → 2026-09-13

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	166-682	.243	.430	.186	30	2	31	48	27.7%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	46-200	.230	.395	.165	7	1	8	17	31.5%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	120-482	.249	.444	.195	23	1	23	31	26.1%
Last 15 days recent form	10-43	.233	.349	.116	2	0	1	5	30.2%
vs NYM tonight's opponent (full roster)	1-5	.200	.200	.000	0	0	0	0	40.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.345

wOBA0.334

delta−0.011 due

n=175 PA

Spray chart

234 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play234

HR rate6.0%

Hard-hit (95+)40%

Avg exit velo89.9 mph

Ground ball36%

Line drive24%

Fly ball31%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-13	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-12	4	0	0	0	1	0	0-for-3 · 1 BB
2026-09-11	4	3	0	0	0	1	3-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-09	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-09-08	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-1
2026-09-07	5	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-06	4	1	1	0	0	3	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 3 K
2026-09-05	4	1	1	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 K
2026-09-04	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4
2026-09-03	4	2	0	1	1	1	2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Christian Encarnacion-Strand across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.