← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +9.0% edge model 68% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (15% usage, .351 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 68% +9.0% 50% LEAN
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Liam Hicks, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 22-8 73% +50.2% A 10-8 56% +77.0% B 8-15 35% +11.1%
Combined 40-31 · n=71 · ROI +44.3% · avg CLV -1.0 pts · beat close 36%
Matchup Liam Hicks (LHB) vs Ranger Suarez LHP favors batter favors pitcher Ranger Suarez LHP · season · 137.9 IP · 593 BF
Liam Hicks hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 215-832 .258 .383 .125 24 12.6% 13.1% vs LHP 28-165 .170 .206 .036 1 12.2% 16.4%
Pitch-type matchup Ranger Suarez's arsenal × how Liam Hicks hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Ranger Suarez throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Sinker 29% 90.2 9% .344 Changeup 19% 79.9 30% .317 Cutter 18% 86.8 16% .355 Curveball 16% 74.3 27% .242 TOP Four-Seam15% 91.5 14% .408 Slider 4% 79.6 60% .370
Liam Hicks vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Sinker 368 6% .259 84.1 Changeup 290 19% .290 84.0 Cutter 188 13% .316 83.0 Curveball 185 9% .299 86.3 TOP Four-Seam729 7% .351 87.5 Slider 292 20% .268 81.8
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits50% Total Bases40% Home Runs10% Singles30% Doubles10% Triples0% Strikeouts40% Walks30% RBIs40% Runs Scored20% Hits + Runs + RBIs50% Stolen Bases0%
50% 5/10 · L10 · avg 0.7
Our model 68% OVER +9.0% edge S
2 @TEX 09-05 0 @TEX 09-06 1 @ATL 09-08 1 @ATL 09-09 0 @ATL 09-10 0 vHOU 09-11 1 vHOU 09-12 0 vOAK 09-15 0 vOAK 09-16 2 vOAK 09-17
L5 40% 2/5 L10 50% 5/10 L20 65% 13/20 2026 64% 93/146 2025 49% 61/124
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.0 Plate Appearances avg 3.0
4 1 5 4 1 3 3 3 1 5 Total Bases avg 1.1
2 0 4 1 0 0 2 0 0 2 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.4
0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1
Tonight's lines 2026-09-18 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits OVER 0.5-145 Home Runs UNDER 0.5—
Price legs
Splits Career n=952 PA · 2025-03-16 → 2026-09-16
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Career
all history
215-832 .258 .383 .125 28 2 24 120 13.1% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
28-165 .170 .206 .036 3 0 1 23 16.4% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
187-667 .280 .427 .147 25 2 23 97 12.3% Last 15 days
recent form
6-26 .231 .385 .154 1 0 1 3 11.5% vs BOS
tonight's opponent (full roster)
2-10 .200 .300 .100 1 0 0 5 20.0% @ Tropicana Field
tonight's stadium
1605-6138 .261 .282 .020 124 0 0 644 13.4%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.308
wOBA 0.344
delta +0.036 hot
n=539 PA
Spray chart 712 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Ranger Suarez's mix Balls in play 712
HR rate 3.4%
Hard-hit (95+) 28%
Avg exit velo 84.1 mph
Ground ball 44%
Line drive 25%
Fly ball 24%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-09-17 5 2 0 0 0 1 1 2-for-4 · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-09-16 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-09-15 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-2 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-09-12 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-for-3 · 1 2B 2026-09-11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-09-10 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-1 · 1 K 2026-09-09 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K 2026-09-08 5 1 0 0 1 1 0 1-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-09-06 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-09-05 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-4 · 1 RBI
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Liam Hicks across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.