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Pete Crow-Armstrong
CF · LHB · LHP · CHC
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits UNDER 1.5+12.4% edgemodel 77% · grade S
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Pete Crow-Armstrong, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 9-7 | 56% | +35.3% |
| A | 5-1 | 83% | +101.3% |
| B | 10-5 | 67% | +44.3% |
Combined 24-13 · n=37 · ROI +49.7% · avg CLV -1.5 pts · beat close 23%
Matchup
Pete Crow-Armstrong (LHB) vs Rhett Lowder RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Rhett Lowder's arsenal × how Pete Crow-Armstrong hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.7Plate Appearancesavg 4.7
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 2.2
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 1.3
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=700 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-09-18
xStats luck
xwOBA0.365
wOBA0.383
delta+0.018 hot
n=700 PA
Spray chart
901 balls in play since 2025· wind 4 mph cross-windBalls in play901
HR rate8.2%
Hard-hit (95+)47%
Avg exit velo89.4 mph
Ground ball32%
Line drive23%
Fly ball35%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+85.2%significant
n=346 games · 55/279 HR when active
+39.9%significant
n=346 games · 13/51 HR when active
+37.5%significant
n=346 games · 14/57 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
// TONIGHT
4 / 6HELPING · IN PLAY
Slight favorable lean
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +85% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
- +51% HR rate when vs short-leash starter (avg ip < 5.0).
- +41% HR rate when hot streak (l5 avg ev > career baseline).
- +38% HR rate when platoon advantage (lhb-vs-rhp or rhb-vs-lhp).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight
1.85× HR rate
279 yes / 67 no · 60 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
1.57× HR rate
156 yes / 190 no · 60 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)tonight
1.51× HR rate
147 yes / 196 no · 60 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+46%
158 yes / 188 no · 60 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)tonight
+41%
229 yes / 108 no · 60 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+40%
51 yes / 295 no · 60 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)tonight
+38%
205 yes / 76 no · 47 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)tonight
0.62× HR rate
49 yes / 295 no · 60 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+38%
57 yes / 289 no · 60 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+34%
75 yes / 255 no · 60 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+34%
39 yes / 305 no · 60 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+32%
52 yes / 267 no · 58 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−27%
17 yes / 313 no · 60 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−26%
100 yes / 246 no · 60 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight
−22%
102 yes / 244 no · 60 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−22%
55 yes / 278 no · 59 HRs
// 12 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+29%
3 yes / 343 no · 60 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−19%
13 yes / 332 no · 60 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+16%
158 yes / 188 no · 60 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+14%
28 yes / 318 no · 60 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
+13%
2 yes / 344 no · 60 HRs
Playing at home
+11%
174 yes / 172 no · 60 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+10%
269 yes / 76 no · 60 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−9%
194 yes / 147 no · 59 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+7%
75 yes / 271 no · 60 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+6%
76 yes / 270 no · 60 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 346 no · 60 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Pete Crow-Armstrong across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.