Denzer Guzman

3B · RHB · LAA

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

BAL

Starter

Brandon Young (RHP)

Stadium

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Model HR%

20.6%

Model Hits%

72.0%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+7.3% edgemodel 21% · grade A

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (43% usage, .642 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	21%	+7.3%	10%	CAUTION
Hits	OVER 1.5	32%	+6.7%	0%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Denzer Guzman, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	1-3	25%	-57.1%
A	0-5	0%	-100.0%
B	3-5	38%	+89.2%

Combined 4-13 · n=17 · ROI -0.9% · avg CLV +44.4 pts · beat close 100%

Matchup

Denzer Guzman (RHB) vs Brandon Young RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Brandon Young RHP · season · 102.3 IP · 440 BF

BAA

.241

wOBA

.315

SLG

.375

ISO

.134

WHIP

1.31

HR/9

0.97

BB%

8.4%

19.3%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.5%

HH%

42.4%

FB%

37.0%

HR/FB%

10.6%

Denzer Guzman hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	36-152	.237	.388	.151	6	6.7%	26.3%
vs RHP	29-109	.266	.358	.092	2	5.2%	22.9%

Pitch-type matchup

Brandon Young's arsenal × how Denzer Guzman hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Brandon Young throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	43%	93.9	18%	.318
Splitter	19%	87.0	25%	.401
Curveball	14%	75.6	16%	.342
Slider	11%	83.1	29%	.349
Cutter	6%	86.8	19%	.386
Sinker	5%	93.2	5%	.347
Changeup	3%	87.1	27%	.551
Pitchout	0%	91.4	—	—

Denzer Guzman vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	64	36%	.642	90.9
Splitter	1	—	—	—
Curveball	9	100%	—	—
Slider	21	50%	.077	95.1
Cutter	19	18%	.040	82.6
Sinker	28	20%	.541	87.8
Changeup	10	67%	.593	100.7
Pitchout	no sample

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

50%5/10 · L10 · avg 0.5

Our model72% OVER+4.3% edgeB

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.6

Plate Appearancesavg 3.6

Hitsavg 0.5

Singlesavg 0.4

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 0.8

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.7

Walksavg 0.3

Tonight's lines

2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	9%	—	+500	+0.7	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	OVER	B	72%	+4.3%	-210	+5.2	Sign in to save	Sign in
BEST1.5	OVER	A	32%	+6.7%	+300	-1.3	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	8%	-0.1%	+1200	-0.6	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	21%	+7.3%	+650	+3.7	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	15%	—	+195	+5.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	12%	—	+700	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	53%	—	-110	+2.4	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	13%	—	+600	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	39%	—	+170	-1.0	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=163 PA · 2026-03-18 → 2026-08-04

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	36-152	.237	.388	.151	5	6	11	26.3%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	7-43	.163	.465	.302	1	4	5	34.9%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	29-109	.266	.358	.092	4	2	6	22.9%
Last 15 days recent form	5-29	.172	.276	.103	0	1	4	20.7%
vs BAL tonight's opponent (full roster)	0-10	.000	.000	.000	0	0	3	50.0%
@ Oriole Park at Camden Yards tonight's stadium	0-231	.000	.000	.000	0	0	77	33.3%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.261

wOBA0.284

delta+0.023 hot

n=163 PA

Spray chart

130 balls in play since 2025· wind 6 mph cross-wind

Balls in play130

HR rate6.2%

Hard-hit (95+)34%

Avg exit velo87.2 mph

Ground ball43%

Line drive25%

Fly ball25%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-04	4	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-08-02	3	0	0	1	1	0-for-2 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-08-01	3	1	0	0	0	1-for-3
2026-07-31	3	1	1	0	0	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R
2026-07-29	4	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-27	4	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-26	4	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 SB · 1 K
2026-07-25	4	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-07-24	4	1	0	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-07-20	3	0	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Denzer Guzman across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.