Samuel Basallo

C · LHB · RHP · BAL

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

TOR

Starter

Max Scherzer

Stadium

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Model HR%

21.8%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+12.5% edgemodel 62% · grade S

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (49% usage, .419 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	62%	+12.5%	40%	LEAN
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	18%	+5.4%	10%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Samuel Basallo, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	11-5	69%	+31.0%
A	2-4	33%	-24.3%
B	1-10	9%	-86.6%

Combined 14-19 · n=33 · ROI -18.3% · avg CLV -3.6 pts · beat close 62%

Matchup

Samuel Basallo (LHB) vs Max Scherzer favors batterfavors pitcher

Max Scherzer · season · 77.7 IP · 334 BF

BAA

.234

wOBA

.310

SLG

.411

ISO

.177

WHIP

1.35

HR/9

1.62

BB%

10.5%

17.1%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.4%

HH%

34.3%

FB%

49.0%

HR/FB%

14.0%

Samuel Basallo hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	105-491	.214	.401	.187	24	8.7%	28.7%
vs ?HP	84-374	.225	.447	.222	21	8.8%	26.2%

Pitch-type matchup

Max Scherzer's arsenal × how Samuel Basallo hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Max Scherzer throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	49%	93.6	15%	.412
Slider	23%	86.4	28%	.391
Changeup	14%	84.8	16%	.346
TOPCurveball	12%	76.6	22%	.472
Cutter	2%	88.2	29%	.411

Samuel Basallo vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	306	20%	.419	94.1
Slider	153	40%	.305	85.8
Changeup	168	29%	.314	88.4
TOPCurveball	87	32%	.612	93.9
Cutter	87	21%	.284	90.2

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

40%4/10 · L10 · avg 0.6

Our model62% OVER+12.5% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.4

Plate Appearancesavg 3.4

Hitsavg 0.6

Singlesavg 0.5

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 0.9

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.8

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	7%	—	+730	-0.1	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	62%	+12.5%	+103	+0.5	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	18%	+5.4%	+702	+0.2	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	12%	—	+327	-0.5	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	42%	—	+165	+0.6	Sign in to save	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	40%	—	-137	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	31%	—	+225	+1.4	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=538 PA · 2025-03-16 → 2026-09-19

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	105-491	.214	.401	.187	18	1	24	47	28.7%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	21-117	.179	.256	.077	0	0	3	11	36.8%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	84-374	.225	.447	.222	18	1	21	36	26.2%
Last 15 days recent form	6-28	.214	.321	.107	0	0	1	2	28.6%
vs TOR tonight's opponent (full roster)	8-27	.296	.630	.333	3	0	2	6	18.5%
@ Oriole Park at Camden Yards tonight's stadium	2407-14598	.165	.288	.123	0	0	597	723	25.1%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.307

wOBA0.309

delta+0.002 hot

n=409 PA

Spray chart

349 balls in play since 2025· wind 9 mph blowing in

Balls in play349

HR rate6.6%

Hard-hit (95+)42%

Avg exit velo89.8 mph

Ground ball46%

Line drive20%

Fly ball28%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-20	4	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-19	3	0	0	0	0	0-for-3
2026-09-18	5	1	0	0	1	1-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-09-16	4	2	1	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-14	2	0	0	0	1	0-for-2 · 1 K
2026-09-13	3	0	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K
2026-09-12	1	0	0	0	1	0-for-1 · 1 K
2026-09-11	4	1	0	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-09-08	4	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 1 RBI · 2 K
2026-09-07	4	2	0	0	1	2-for-4 · 2 R · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Samuel Basallo across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.