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Hits OVER 0.5 +12.6% edge model 65% · grade S
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 65% +12.6% 10% CAUTION Home Runs UNDER 0.5 94% -1.2% 100% PASS
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Jacob Gonzalez, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 1-2 33% -40.0% A — — — B — — —
Combined 1-2 · n=3 · ROI -40.0% · avg CLV +0.7 pts · beat close 50%
Matchup Jacob Gonzalez (LHB) vs Gavin Williams RHP favors batter favors pitcher Gavin Williams RHP · season · 95.6 IP · 411 BF
Jacob Gonzalez hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 8-48 .167 .229 .063 1 12.7% 31.3% vs RHP 7-37 .189 .270 .081 1 7.5% 32.4%
Pitch-type matchup Gavin Williams's arsenal × how Jacob Gonzalez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Gavin Williams throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Four-Seam 35% 96.6 21% .432 Sweeper 22% 86.6 45% .395 Curveball 22% 82.1 31% .338 Cutter 12% 91.7 18% .349 Sinker 9% 95.9 9% .392 Changeup 0% 88.2 0% —
Jacob Gonzalez vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Four-Seam 5 20% — 89.4 Sweeper no sample Curveball no sample Cutter 2 0% — — Sinker 2 0% — 64.3 Changeup 1 0% — 81.5
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits10% Total Bases10% Home Runs0% Singles10% Doubles0% Triples0% Strikeouts70% Walks20% RBIs10% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs30% Stolen Bases0%
10% 1/10 · L10 · avg 0.2
Our model 65% OVER +12.6% edge S
2 vATL 06-09 0 vATL 06-10 0 vLAD 06-12 0 vLAD 06-13 0 vLAD 06-14 0 @NYY 06-16 0 @NYY 06-17 0 @NYY 06-18 0 @DET 06-20 0 @DET 06-21
L5 0% 0/5 L10 10% 1/10 L20 30% 6/20 2026 33% 10/30 2025 100% 2/2
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.2 Plate Appearances avg 3.2
5 3 4 3 4 3 2 2 2 4 Total Bases avg 0.2
2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.8
1 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 9% — +650 +0.0 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 65% +12.6% -112 -0.7 Sign in 1.5 OVER A 22% +5.2% +500 -0.7 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 4% +0.5% +3000 -0.6 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5UNDER PASS 94% -1.2% -2000 +6.0 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 5% — +275 +2.0 — 1.5 — PASS 2% — +800 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 50% — +150 +0.8 — 1.5 — PASS 11% — +1000 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — A 35% — +260 -0.8 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -112 +500 +3000 -2000
Price legs
Splits Career n=55 PA · 2026-03-17 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
8-48 .167 .229 .063 0 0 1 7 31.3% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
1-11 .091 .091 .000 0 0 0 4 27.3% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
7-37 .189 .270 .081 0 0 1 3 32.4% Last 15 days
recent form
2-25 .080 .080 .000 0 0 0 5 36.0% @ Rate Field
tonight's stadium
312-1793 .174 .174 .000 0 0 0 306 35.0%
Spray chart 36 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Gavin Williams's mix Balls in play 36
HR rate 2.8%
Hard-hit (95+) 41%
Avg exit velo 89.1 mph
Ground ball 50%
Line drive 14%
Fly ball 28%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-4 · 1 R 2026-06-20 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-2 2026-06-18 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-2 · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-17 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-2 2026-06-16 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-06-14 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-13 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-3 · 2 K 2026-06-12 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-10 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-06-09 5 2 0 0 0 1 1 2-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Jacob Gonzalez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
