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Stadium
American Family Field
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +12.9% edge model 68% · grade S
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 68% +12.9% 40% LEAN Home Runs OVER 0.5 12% +4.5% 10% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Jacob Gonzalez, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 8-1 89% +54.1% A 6-0 100% +249.3% B 2-5 29% -46.3%
Combined 16-6 · n=22 · ROI +75.4% · avg CLV -5.2 pts · beat close 43%
Matchup Jacob Gonzalez (LHB) vs Dustin May RHP favors batter favors pitcher Dustin May RHP · season · 112.3 IP · 483 BF
Jacob Gonzalez hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 31-137 .226 .380 .153 5 6.8% 20.4% vs RHP 27-116 .233 .397 .164 5 4.9% 20.7%
Pitch-type matchup Dustin May's arsenal × how Jacob Gonzalez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Dustin May throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Sweeper 33% 85.3 27% .357 Sinker 29% 94.9 10% .431 Four-Seam 19% 96.0 20% .356 Cutter 13% 92.4 19% .340 Changeup 3% 90.1 0% .459 Curveball 2% 83.2 30% .500 Pitchout 0% 95.7 — —
Jacob Gonzalez vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Sweeper no sample Sinker 2 0% — 64.3 Four-Seam 5 20% — 89.4 Cutter 2 0% — — Changeup 1 0% — 81.5 Curveball no sample Pitchout no sample
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits40% Total Bases20% Home Runs10% Singles30% Doubles10% Triples0% Strikeouts50% Walks0% RBIs20% Runs Scored20% Hits + Runs + RBIs50% Stolen Bases10%
40% 4/10 · L10 · avg 0.5
Our model 68% OVER +12.9% edge S
0 vCHC 07-25 0 vCHC 07-26 1 vARI 07-27 1 vARI 07-28 0 @CIN 07-30 0 @CIN 07-31 2 @CIN 08-02 0 @MIL 08-03 1 @MIL 08-04 0 @MIL 08-05
L5 40% 2/5 L10 40% 4/10 L20 40% 8/20 2026 42% 25/60 2025 100% 2/2
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.0 Plate Appearances avg 3.0
3 4 4 3 2 3 3 4 3 1 Total Bases avg 0.9
0 0 1 1 0 0 3 0 4 0 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 Strikeouts avg 0.6
1 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 1
Tonight's lines 2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits OVER 0.5-125 Hits OVER 1.5+400 Hits OVER 2.5+2500 Home Runs OVER 0.5+1155
Price legs
Splits Career n=147 PA · 2026-03-17 → 2026-08-04
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
31-137 .226 .380 .153 6 0 5 10 20.4% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
4-21 .190 .286 .095 2 0 0 4 19.0% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
27-116 .233 .397 .164 4 0 5 6 20.7% Last 15 days
recent form
6-34 .176 .382 .206 1 0 2 0 14.7% vs MIL
tonight's opponent (full roster)
1-9 .111 .444 .333 0 0 1 0 11.1% @ American Family Field
tonight's stadium
175-1141 .153 .613 .460 0 0 175 0 13.5%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.302
wOBA 0.287
delta −0.015 due
n=147 PA
Spray chart 112 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Dustin May's mix Balls in play 112
HR rate 4.5%
Hard-hit (95+) 42%
Avg exit velo 88.4 mph
Ground ball 41%
Line drive 26%
Fly ball 27%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-08-05 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-1 · 1 K 2026-08-04 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R 2026-08-03 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-08-02 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 2-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 R 2026-07-31 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-07-30 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-2 · 1 RBI · 1 K 2026-07-28 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-3 2026-07-27 4 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-for-4 · 1 SB · 2 K 2026-07-26 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-4 2026-07-25 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Jacob Gonzalez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.