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James Wood
RF · LHB · RHP · WSN
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Away @
PHI
Starter
Stadium
Citizens Bank Park
Model HR%
19.3%
Model Hits%
64.4%
Model K%
25.2%
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on James Wood, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 9-4 | 69% | +33.3% |
| A | 4-4 | 50% | -22.3% |
| B | 4-7 | 36% | -34.9% |
Combined 17-15 · n=32 · ROI -4.0% · avg CLV +1.3 pts · beat close 44%
Matchup
James Wood (LHB) vs Aaron Nola RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Aaron Nola's arsenal × how James Wood hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.7Plate Appearancesavg 4.7
Hitsavg 0.8
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.5
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 1.0
Walksavg 0.9
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=1,618 PA · 2024-03-17 → 2026-08-01
xStats luck
xwOBA0.386
wOBA0.374
delta−0.012 due
n=554 PA
Spray chart
693 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph cross-windBalls in play693
HR rate8.9%
Hard-hit (95+)57%
Avg exit velo94.3 mph
Ground ball47%
Line drive27%
Fly ball24%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+111.5%significant
n=312 games · 41/138 HR when active
+58.3%significant
n=312 games · 21/69 HR when active
-24.3%significant
n=308 games · 7/51 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
0 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning against
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −20% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
2.12× HR rate
138 yes / 174 no · 62 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
1.58× HR rate
69 yes / 243 no · 62 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
1.51× HR rate
203 yes / 109 no · 62 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+34%
77 yes / 235 no · 62 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−32%
148 yes / 141 no · 58 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+32%
128 yes / 178 no · 62 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−30%
31 yes / 281 no · 62 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−24%
51 yes / 257 no · 62 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+24%
155 yes / 77 no · 48 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
−23%
50 yes / 261 no · 62 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+22%
247 yes / 64 no · 61 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
−20%
131 yes / 181 no · 62 HRs
// 16 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
−29%
11 yes / 300 no · 61 HRs
Playing at home
+18%
156 yes / 156 no · 62 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−17%
34 yes / 276 no · 62 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−10%
232 yes / 76 no · 62 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−10%
25 yes / 287 no · 62 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−10%
3 yes / 293 no · 61 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−9%
60 yes / 233 no · 60 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
71 yes / 225 no · 61 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
63 yes / 249 no · 62 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
192 yes / 113 no · 61 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
34 yes / 252 no · 56 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
44 yes / 266 no · 62 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 308 no · 62 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 312 no · 62 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 312 no · 62 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to James Wood across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.