James Wood

RF · LHB · RHP · WSN

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

STL

Starter

Quinn Mathews

Stadium

Busch Stadium

Model HR%

19.3%

Model Hits%

66.5%

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on James Wood, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	8-4	67%	+16.1%
A	5-5	50%	-6.6%
B	4-4	50%	+23.9%

Combined 17-13 · n=30 · ROI +10.6% · avg CLV +1.8 pts · beat close 46%

Matchup

James Wood (LHB) vs Quinn Mathews favors batterfavors pitcher

Quinn Mathews · season · 41.9 IP · 180 BF

BAA

.239

wOBA

.288

SLG

.340

ISO

.101

WHIP

1.41

HR/9

0.64

BB%

11.7%

22.2%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

0.0%

HH%

32.7%

FB%

31.9%

HR/FB%

8.3%

James Wood hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	371-1440	.258	.474	.217	73	14.3%	35.1%
vs ?HP	233-922	.253	.486	.233	50	17.0%	37.2%

Pitch-type matchup

Quinn Mathews's arsenal × how James Wood hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Quinn Mathews throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	48%	94.1	33%	—
TOPSlider	21%	85.7	44%	—
TOPChangeup	17%	82.4	42%	—
Sinker	9%	93.9	20%	—
Curveball	5%	75.2	—	—

James Wood vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	1117	21%	.615	99.4
TOPSlider	612	45%	.592	91.2
TOPChangeup	472	34%	.357	89.0
Sinker	585	18%	.487	97.6
Curveball	397	47%	.362	89.4

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

80%8/10 · L10 · avg 1.0

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2

Plate Appearancesavg 4.2

Hitsavg 1.0

Singlesavg 0.7

Doublesavg 0.3

Total Basesavg 1.3

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 1.2

Walksavg 0.8

Splits

Career n=1,680 PA · 2024-03-17 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	371-1440	.258	.474	.217	83	5	73	240	35.1%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	138-518	.266	.454	.187	26	1	23	51	31.3%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	233-922	.253	.486	.233	57	4	50	189	37.2%
Last 15 days recent form	9-36	.250	.306	.056	2	0	0	9	27.8%
vs STL tonight's opponent (full roster)	12-37	.324	.622	.297	2	0	3	5	32.4%
@ Busch Stadium tonight's stadium	18-54	.333	.667	.333	18	0	0	18	0.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.401

wOBA0.387

delta−0.014 due

n=616 PA

Spray chart

725 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play725

HR rate8.6%

Hard-hit (95+)58%

Avg exit velo94.4 mph

Ground ball48%

Line drive27%

Fly ball23%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+80.8%significant

n=313 games · 37/132 HR when active

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+38.3%significant

n=313 games · 18/66 HR when active

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

-18.0%small sample

n=310 games · 8/52 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-25

// TONIGHT

3 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY

Leaning favorable

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+35% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
+30% HR rate when vs short-leash starter (avg ip < 5.0).
+21% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

1.81× HR rate

132 yes / 181 no · 62 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

+49%

205 yes / 108 no · 62 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+38%

66 yes / 247 no · 62 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight

+35%

77 yes / 236 no · 62 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−32%

149 yes / 141 no · 58 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)tonight

+30%

130 yes / 178 no · 62 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

−30%

31 yes / 282 no · 62 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+24%

156 yes / 77 no · 48 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight

+21%

248 yes / 64 no · 61 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

−21%

132 yes / 181 no · 62 HRs

// 18 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Rested (2+ days off)

−29%

11 yes / 301 no · 61 HRs

Playing at home

+18%

156 yes / 157 no · 62 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

−18%

52 yes / 258 no · 62 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

−18%

35 yes / 276 no · 62 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

−14%

49 yes / 263 no · 62 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

−13%

240 yes / 70 no · 62 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−10%

25 yes / 288 no · 62 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−10%

3 yes / 294 no · 61 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−9%

60 yes / 234 no · 60 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

neutral

71 yes / 226 no · 61 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

neutral

68 yes / 245 no · 62 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

neutral

34 yes / 253 no · 56 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

neutral

193 yes / 113 no · 61 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

neutral

44 yes / 267 no · 62 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 313 no · 62 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 313 no · 62 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 310 no · 62 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	5	2	0	0	1	2-for-5 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-18	4	1	1	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 BB
2026-09-16	4	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-09-15	1	0	0	0	1	0-for-1 · 1 K
2026-09-13	5	2	0	1	1	2-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-12	5	1	0	1	3	1-for-4 · 1 R · 2 SB · 1 BB · 3 K
2026-09-11	4	1	0	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 RBI · 1 SB · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-09	4	1	0	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-08	4	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-07	4	1	1	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to James Wood across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.