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Carter Jensen
C · LHB · RHP · KCR
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+4.0% edgemodel 67% · grade B
Why: strong vs the Cutter (39% usage, .580 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Carter Jensen, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 8-4 | 67% | +62.2% |
| A | 5-10 | 33% | +7.8% |
| B | 5-9 | 36% | -31.6% |
Combined 18-23 · n=41 · ROI +10.3% · avg CLV +0.1 pts · beat close 43%
Matchup
Carter Jensen (LHB) vs Ryan Johnson RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Ryan Johnson's arsenal × how Carter Jensen hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9Plate Appearancesavg 3.9
Hitsavg 0.2
Singlesavg 0.1
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 0.5
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.2
Walksavg 0.7
Tonight's lines
2026-08-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=544 PA · 2025-03-15 → 2026-08-14
xStats luck
xwOBA0.296
wOBA0.311
delta+0.015 hot
n=472 PA
Spray chart
334 balls in play since 2025Balls in play334
HR rate5.7%
Hard-hit (95+)43%
Avg exit velo91.0 mph
Ground ball36%
Line drive22%
Fly ball32%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Carter Jensen across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.