Braden Montgomery

RF · SHB · CHW

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

Starter

Daniel Lynch IV (LHP)

Stadium

Kauffman Stadium

Model HR%

12.1%

Model Hits%

68.5%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+9.3% edgemodel 68% · grade S

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	68%	+9.3%	20%	CAUTION
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	12%	+5.0%	0%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Braden Montgomery, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	8-10	44%	-26.6%
A	5-10	33%	-24.5%
B	8-9	47%	-19.3%

Combined 21-29 · n=50 · ROI -23.5% · avg CLV -0.8 pts · beat close 29%

Matchup

Braden Montgomery (SHB) vs Daniel Lynch IV LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Daniel Lynch IV LHP · season · 75.1 IP · 323 BF

BAA

.200

wOBA

.327

SLG

.325

ISO

.125

WHIP

1.16

HR/9

0.72

BB%

8.7%

18.0%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.5%

HH%

38.8%

FB%

31.6%

HR/FB%

9.7%

Braden Montgomery hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	64-303	.211	.340	.129	6	11.9%	22.8%
vs LHP	11-87	.126	.230	.103	1	9.4%	32.2%

Pitch-type matchup

Daniel Lynch IV's arsenal × how Braden Montgomery hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Daniel Lynch IV throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Slider	28%	86.8	34%	.334
Four-Seam	22%	94.2	11%	.335
Sinker	21%	94.0	16%	.278
Changeup	21%	86.0	27%	.378
Knuckle Curve	9%	82.3	33%	.443
Cutter	0%	88.6	0%	—

Braden Montgomery vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Slider	no sample
Four-Seam	no sample
Sinker	no sample
Changeup	no sample
Knuckle Curve	no sample
Cutter	no sample

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

20%2/10 · L10 · avg 0.3

Our model68% OVER+9.3% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.0

Plate Appearancesavg 3.0

Hitsavg 0.3

Singlesavg 0.1

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 0.5

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.7

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-09-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	68%	+9.3%	-145	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	12%	+5.0%	+1319	+0.1	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	8%	—	+268	+0.1	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=344 PA · 2026-06-09 → 2026-09-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	64-303	.211	.340	.129	15	3	6	41	22.8%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	11-87	.126	.230	.103	4	1	1	9	32.2%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	53-216	.245	.384	.139	11	2	5	32	19.0%
Last 15 days recent form	5-33	.152	.242	.091	3	0	0	4	24.2%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.322

wOBA0.288

delta−0.034 due

n=344 PA

Spray chart

234 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play234

HR rate2.6%

Hard-hit (95+)40%

Avg exit velo88.6 mph

Ground ball59%

Line drive18%

Fly ball19%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-20	4	2	1	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI
2026-09-19	3	1	1	0	0	1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 R
2026-09-18	2	0	0	0	1	0-for-2 · 1 K
2026-09-17	3	0	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K
2026-09-15	2	0	0	0	1	0-for-2 · 1 K
2026-09-14	4	0	0	1	3	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 3 K
2026-09-13	1	0	0	0	0	0-for-1
2026-09-12	4	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-11	4	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-09-10	3	0	0	0	0	0-for-3

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Braden Montgomery across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.