Braden Montgomery

RF · SHB · CHW

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

CLE

Starter

Gavin Williams (RHP)

Stadium

Rate Field

Model HR%

12.5%

Model Hits%

59.1%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+2.5% edgemodel 13% · grade PASS

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	13%	+2.5%	10%	CAUTION
Hits	UNDER 1.5	82%	+2.1%	80%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Braden Montgomery, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	5-0	100%	+61.2%
A	1-7	13%	-79.0%
B	5-8	38%	-15.7%

Combined 11-15 · n=26 · ROI -20.4% · avg CLV -1.5 pts · beat close 12%

Matchup

Braden Montgomery (SHB) vs Gavin Williams RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Gavin Williams RHP · season · 137.9 IP · 593 BF

BAA

.215

wOBA

.296

SLG

.384

ISO

.169

WHIP

1.18

HR/9

1.50

BB%

7.4%

31.7%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.7%

HH%

48.3%

FB%

28.2%

HR/FB%

27.4%

Braden Montgomery hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	39-172	.227	.360	.134	3	10.4%	23.8%
vs RHP	31-125	.248	.400	.152	3	10.1%	21.6%

Pitch-type matchup

Gavin Williams's arsenal × how Braden Montgomery hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Gavin Williams throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Four-Seam	35%	96.6	21%	.432
Sweeper	22%	86.6	45%	.395
Curveball	22%	82.1	31%	.338
Cutter	12%	91.7	18%	.349
Sinker	9%	95.9	9%	.392
Changeup	0%	88.2	0%	—

Braden Montgomery vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Four-Seam	no sample
Sweeper	no sample
Curveball	no sample
Cutter	no sample
Sinker	no sample
Changeup	no sample

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

50%5/10 · L10 · avg 0.7

Our model59% OVER+1.2% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2

Plate Appearancesavg 4.2

Hitsavg 0.7

Singlesavg 0.5

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 1.2

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 1.2

Walksavg 0.6

Tonight's lines

2026-08-08 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+525	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	OVER	PASS	59%	+1.2%	-137	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
BEST1.5	UNDER	PASS	82%	+2.1%	-600	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	2%	-3.9%	+1600	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	13%	+2.5%	+903	-0.2	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	8%	—	+331	-0.3	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	6%	—	+900	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	39%	—	+130	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+800	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	B	30%	—	+190	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=192 PA · 2026-06-09 → 2026-08-06

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	39-172	.227	.360	.134	10	2	3	20	23.8%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	8-47	.170	.255	.085	2	1	0	6	29.8%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	31-125	.248	.400	.152	8	1	3	14	21.6%
Last 15 days recent form	9-44	.205	.250	.045	0	1	0	7	34.1%
vs CLE tonight's opponent (full roster)	6-25	.240	.480	.240	3	0	1	4	24.0%
@ Rate Field tonight's stadium	3250-11649	.279	.449	.170	362	134	449	1382	27.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.297

wOBA0.295

delta−0.002 due

n=192 PA

Spray chart

131 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play131

HR rate2.3%

Hard-hit (95+)40%

Avg exit velo88.3 mph

Ground ball60%

Line drive17%

Fly ball19%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	3B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-07	4	2	0	1	1	1	2-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-08-06	6	1	0	0	1	1	1-for-5 · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-08-05	4	0	0	0	0	3	0-for-4 · 3 K
2026-08-04	4	0	0	0	1	0	0-for-3 · 1 RBI · 1 BB
2026-08-01	3	1	0	0	0	2	1-for-3 · 2 K
2026-07-31	4	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-07-30	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-29	5	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-4 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-07-28	4	2	0	0	1	1	2-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-07-27	4	1	1	0	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 3B · 1 RBI · 1 BB · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Braden Montgomery across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.