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Hunter Goodman
C · RHB · RHP
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Hunter Goodman, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-1 | 83% | +82.2% |
| A | 3-3 | 50% | -3.9% |
| B | 1-1 | 50% | -13.0% |
Combined 9-5 · n=14 · ROI +31.7% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 50%
Matchup
Hunter Goodman (RHB) vs Seth Lugo RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Seth Lugo's arsenal × how Hunter Goodman hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1Plate Appearancesavg 4.1
Hitsavg 0.9
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 2.2
Home Runsavg 0.4
Strikeoutsavg 1.8
Walksavg 0.5
Tonight's lines
2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=441 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-07-29
xStats luck
xwOBA0.324
wOBA0.372
delta+0.048 hot
n=441 PA
Spray chart
664 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph blowing outBalls in play664
HR rate9.8%
Hard-hit (95+)44%
Avg exit velo90.4 mph
Ground ball36%
Line drive24%
Fly ball30%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+48.3%significant
n=295 games · 38/163 HR when active
+35.8%significant
n=273 games · 10/35 HR when active
+32.2%significant
n=302 games · 15/57 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-07-28
// TONIGHT
1 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +47% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
1.61× HR rate
217 yes / 85 no · 59 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+48%
163 yes / 132 no · 57 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+47%
114 yes / 188 no · 59 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+36%
35 yes / 238 no · 52 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+32%
57 yes / 245 no · 59 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+32%
144 yes / 158 no · 59 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+31%
58 yes / 241 no · 58 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+30%
50 yes / 251 no · 58 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+29%
52 yes / 229 no · 57 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−28%
62 yes / 154 no · 40 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+24%
57 yes / 241 no · 58 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+22%
26 yes / 276 no · 59 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+21%
178 yes / 124 no · 59 HRs
// 15 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+21%
4 yes / 298 no · 59 HRs
Playing at home
−17%
150 yes / 152 no · 59 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+16%
5 yes / 281 no · 57 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−16%
67 yes / 219 no · 57 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−15%
217 yes / 84 no · 59 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−11%
20 yes / 281 no · 59 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−10%
90 yes / 212 no · 59 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+10%
26 yes / 274 no · 59 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−9%
171 yes / 129 no · 59 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
127 yes / 170 no · 58 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
219 yes / 79 no · 58 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 301 no · 59 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
132 yes / 165 no · 59 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 298 no · 58 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Hunter Goodman across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.