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Hunter Goodman
C · RHB · RHP
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Hunter Goodman, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 11-6 | 65% | +64.3% |
| A | 2-6 | 25% | -59.6% |
| B | 4-4 | 50% | -22.2% |
Combined 17-16 · n=33 · ROI +13.3% · avg CLV -4.2 pts · beat close 9%
Matchup
Hunter Goodman (RHB) vs Robbie Ray LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Robbie Ray's arsenal × how Hunter Goodman hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 0.6
Singlesavg 0.1
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.6
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.9
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-09-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=560 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-14
xStats luck
xwOBA0.312
wOBA0.359
delta+0.047 hot
n=560 PA
Spray chart
743 balls in play since 2025· wind 4 mph blowing outBalls in play743
HR rate9.7%
Hard-hit (95+)44%
Avg exit velo90.0 mph
Ground ball37%
Line drive23%
Fly ball31%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+44.0%significant
n=323 games · 41/180 HR when active
+38.4%significant
n=300 games · 11/39 HR when active
+26.1%significant
n=311 games · 16/62 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
// TONIGHT
0 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning against
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −29% HR rate when platoon advantage (lhb-vs-rhp or rhb-vs-lhp).
- −21% HR rate when playing at home.
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
1.63× HR rate
245 yes / 87 no · 65 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+44%
180 yes / 143 no · 62 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+43%
134 yes / 198 no · 65 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+38%
39 yes / 261 no · 56 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)tonight
−29%
70 yes / 172 no · 45 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+26%
62 yes / 249 no · 63 HRs
Playing at hometonight
−21%
161 yes / 171 no · 65 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−20%
88 yes / 228 no · 63 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+20%
59 yes / 271 no · 64 HRs
// 19 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+20%
4 yes / 328 no · 65 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+19%
59 yes / 269 no · 64 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+18%
152 yes / 180 no · 65 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−17%
240 yes / 91 no · 65 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+17%
195 yes / 137 no · 65 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+16%
5 yes / 311 no · 63 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+16%
56 yes / 276 no · 65 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+16%
28 yes / 302 no · 65 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−14%
248 yes / 80 no · 64 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+14%
58 yes / 273 no · 64 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−12%
185 yes / 145 no · 65 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−9%
100 yes / 232 no · 65 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+7%
32 yes / 300 no · 65 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 331 no · 65 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
139 yes / 188 no · 65 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
136 yes / 190 no · 63 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
21 yes / 310 no · 65 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 328 no · 64 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Hunter Goodman across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.