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Hits OVER 0.5 +8.5% edge model 64% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (48% usage, .376 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 64% +8.5% 50% LEAN Home Runs OVER 0.5 10% +1.9% 0% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Jacob Young, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 21-20 51% +10.6% A 5-24 17% -69.1% B 9-19 32% -8.2%
Combined 35-63 · n=98 · ROI -18.3% · avg CLV -1.0 pts · beat close 35%
Matchup Jacob Young (RHB) vs Quinn Mathews favors batter favors pitcher Quinn Mathews · season · 41.9 IP · 180 BF
Jacob Young hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 101-423 .239 .374 .135 10 9.6% 18.4% vs ?HP 61-280 .218 .346 .129 7 8.8% 18.6%
Pitch-type matchup Quinn Mathews's arsenal × how Jacob Young hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Quinn Mathews throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam48% 94.1 33% — Slider 21% 85.7 44% — Changeup 17% 82.4 42% — Sinker 9% 93.9 20% — Curveball 5% 75.2 — —
Jacob Young vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam675 11% .376 84.9 Slider 318 27% .310 85.2 Changeup 180 24% .313 81.4 Sinker 443 5% .324 85.4 Curveball 106 31% .280 89.6
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits50% Total Bases30% Home Runs0% Singles30% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts30% Walks10% RBIs40% Runs Scored40% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases10%
50% 5/10 · L10 · avg 0.6
Our model 64% OVER +8.5% edge S
2 @LAD 09-06 0 @SDP 09-07 0 @SDP 09-08 1 @SDP 09-09 0 vLAA 09-11 1 vLAA 09-12 1 vLAA 09-13 0 vPHI 09-15 1 @STL 09-18 0 @STL 09-19
L5 60% 3/5 L10 50% 5/10 L20 50% 10/20 2026 58% 76/132 2025 58% 65/113
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 2.9 Plate Appearances avg 2.9
4 3 1 3 2 3 4 4 4 1 Total Bases avg 0.8
2 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 2 0 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.4
0 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 1.5 — PASS 30% — +265 +0.0 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits OVER 0.5-125 Hits OVER 1.5+340 Home Runs OVER 0.5+1100
Price legs
Splits Career n=468 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-09-18
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
101-423 .239 .374 .135 21 3 10 45 18.4% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
40-143 .280 .427 .147 10 1 3 18 18.2% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
61-280 .218 .346 .129 11 2 7 27 18.6% Last 15 days
recent form
6-26 .231 .308 .077 2 0 0 2 15.4% vs STL
tonight's opponent (full roster)
7-34 .206 .324 .118 2 1 0 3 17.6% @ Busch Stadium
tonight's stadium
18-54 .333 .667 .333 18 0 0 18 0.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.308
wOBA 0.302
delta −0.006 due
n=467 PA
Spray chart 629 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Quinn Mathews's mix Balls in play 629
HR rate 1.9%
Hard-hit (95+) 32%
Avg exit velo 85.0 mph
Ground ball 48%
Line drive 25%
Fly ball 22%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-09-19 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 · 1 RBI · 1 R 2026-09-18 4 1 1 0 0 1 0 1-for-3 · 1 2B · 2 R · 1 BB 2026-09-15 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-4 2026-09-13 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 SB 2026-09-12 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-3 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-09-11 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-2 · 2 K 2026-09-09 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-3 2026-09-08 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-09-07 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-09-06 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-4 · 1 RBI
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Jacob Young across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.