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Home Runs OVER 0.5 +4.9% edge model 19% · grade B
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (50% usage, .583 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Home Runs OVER 0.5 19% +4.9% 20% CAUTION Hits OVER 0.5 67% +4.5% 70% STRONG
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Sal Stewart, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 0-1 0% -100.0% A 1-4 20% -69.6% B 1-3 25% -65.0%
Combined 2-8 · n=10 · ROI -70.8% · avg CLV -2.1 pts · beat close 67%
Matchup Sal Stewart (RHB) vs Cam Schlittler RHP favors batter favors pitcher Cam Schlittler RHP · season · 83.7 IP · 360 BF
Sal Stewart hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 75-300 .250 .457 .207 15 13.3% 23.0% vs RHP 56-226 .248 .434 .186 10 12.1% 22.6%
Pitch-type matchup Cam Schlittler's arsenal × how Sal Stewart hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Cam Schlittler throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam50% 97.7 27% .383 TOP Cutter22% 93.3 19% .336 Sinker 12% 97.6 16% .331 Curveball 11% 83.5 24% .357 Sweeper 2% 86.1 11% .506 Slider 2% 89.4 21% .313 Changeup 0% 88.2 0% — Pitchout 0% 96.5 — —
Sal Stewart vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam283 28% .583 97.2 TOP Cutter69 31% .504 91.5 Sinker 257 14% .533 93.6 Curveball 97 11% .423 89.3 Sweeper 197 20% .315 87.8 Slider 198 28% .319 90.0 Changeup 91 36% .533 89.9 Pitchout no sample
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits70% Total Bases30% Home Runs20% Singles50% Doubles10% Triples0% Strikeouts70% Walks60% RBIs40% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs70% Stolen Bases10%
70% 7/10 · L10 · avg 0.8
Our model 67% OVER +4.5% edge B
0 @STL 06-07 1 @SDP 06-08 1 @SDP 06-09 1 @SDP 06-10 0 vARI 06-12 0 vARI 06-13 1 vARI 06-14 1 vNYM 06-15 2 vNYM 06-16 1 vNYM 06-17
L5 80% 4/5 L10 70% 7/10 L20 70% 14/20 2026 65% 61/94 2025 48% 10/21
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.4 Plate Appearances avg 4.4
4 4 6 5 5 3 4 5 4 4 Total Bases avg 1.5
0 1 4 1 0 0 1 1 5 2 Home Runs avg 0.2
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 Strikeouts avg 0.8
1 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 1 1
Tonight's lines 2026-06-19 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — B 8% — +550 +0.0 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER B 67% +4.5% -167 +1.2 Sign in 1.5 OVER PASS 23% -2.4% +300 +0.0 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 4% -3.3% +1200 -0.5 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER B 19% +4.9% +635 +0.9 Sign in
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 46% — +120 -3.3 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — PASS 41% — +158 +0.7 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -167 +300 +1200 +635
Price legs
Splits Career n=346 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-17
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
75-300 .250 .457 .207 17 0 15 46 23.0% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
19-74 .257 .527 .270 5 0 5 15 24.3% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
56-226 .248 .434 .186 12 0 10 31 22.6% Last 15 days
recent form
10-45 .222 .400 .178 2 0 2 8 24.4%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.346
wOBA 0.355
delta +0.009 hot
n=343 PA
Spray chart 271 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Cam Schlittler's mix Balls in play 271
HR rate 7.4%
Hard-hit (95+) 42%
Avg exit velo 91.1 mph
Ground ball 45%
Line drive 21%
Fly ball 28%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-17 4 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 K 2026-06-16 4 2 0 0 1 1 1 2-for-3 · 1 HR · 4 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-15 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 SB · 1 BB 2026-06-14 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-13 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-06-12 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-4 · 1 BB 2026-06-10 5 1 0 0 0 1 1 1-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-09 6 1 0 0 1 2 2 1-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 2 BB · 2 K 2026-06-08 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-for-3 · 1 RBI · 1 BB 2026-06-07 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Sal Stewart across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
