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Nathan Church
CF · LHB · LHP · STL
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+9.3% edgemodel 66% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (49% usage, .342 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Nathan Church, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 15-7 | 68% | +22.1% |
| A | 6-8 | 43% | -1.1% |
| B | 1-6 | 14% | -28.6% |
Combined 22-21 · n=43 · ROI +6.3% · avg CLV -2.2 pts · beat close 48%
Matchup
Nathan Church (LHB) vs Max Scherzer favors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Max Scherzer's arsenal × how Nathan Church hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.1Plate Appearancesavg 3.1
Hitsavg 0.5
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 0.5
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.6
Walksavg 0.1
Tonight's lines
2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=312 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-07-31
xStats luck
xwOBA0.264
wOBA0.263
delta−0.001 due
n=311 PA
Spray chart
273 balls in play since 2025· wind 6 mph blowing inBalls in play273
HR rate3.3%
Hard-hit (95+)35%
Avg exit velo85.1 mph
Ground ball50%
Line drive20%
Fly ball19%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Nathan Church across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.