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Caleb Durbin
3B · RHB · RHP · BOS
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits UNDER 0.5+1.6% edgemodel 33% · grade PASS
Why: struggles vs the Changeup (22% usage, .239 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Caleb Durbin, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 4-3 | 57% | +3.9% |
| A | 3-2 | 60% | -17.8% |
| B | 2-3 | 40% | -36.6% |
Combined 9-8 · n=17 · ROI -14.4% · avg CLV -0.3 pts · beat close 27%
Matchup
Caleb Durbin (RHB) vs Davis Martin RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Davis Martin's arsenal × how Caleb Durbin hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2Plate Appearancesavg 4.2
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.2
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.6
Walksavg 0.4
Tonight's lines
2026-08-04 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=413 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-02
xStats luck
xwOBA0.288
wOBA0.309
delta+0.021 hot
n=411 PA
Spray chart
761 balls in play since 2025· wind 10 mph blowing outBalls in play761
HR rate2.8%
Hard-hit (95+)28%
Avg exit velo82.1 mph
Ground ball46%
Line drive23%
Fly ball21%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Caleb Durbin across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.