Jackson Holliday

2B · LHB · RHP · BAL

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

LAA

Starter

Grayson Rodriguez (RHP)

Stadium

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Model HR%

15.2%

Model Hits%

67.0%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+5.6% edgemodel 67% · grade A

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (49% usage, .407 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	67%	+5.6%	70%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	15%	+3.6%	0%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Jackson Holliday, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	10-6	63%	+31.7%
A	3-6	33%	+37.7%
B	1-5	17%	-20.8%

Combined 14-17 · n=31 · ROI +23.3% · avg CLV +0.9 pts · beat close 50%

Matchup

Jackson Holliday (LHB) vs Grayson Rodriguez RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Grayson Rodriguez RHP · season · 48.6 IP · 209 BF

BAA

.304

wOBA

.414

SLG

.554

ISO

.250

WHIP

1.67

HR/9

1.67

BB%

12.0%

17.2%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

4.1%

HH%

52.4%

FB%

34.0%

HR/FB%

18.0%

Jackson Holliday hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	41-167	.246	.377	.132	5	14.4%	29.3%
vs RHP	33-131	.252	.389	.137	4	13.8%	27.5%

Pitch-type matchup

Grayson Rodriguez's arsenal × how Jackson Holliday hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Grayson Rodriguez throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	49%	96.3	10%	.635
TOPSlider	22%	84.4	35%	.363
Changeup	15%	83.1	0%	.277
Curveball	13%	79.7	20%	.584

Jackson Holliday vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	877	19%	.407	92.5
TOPSlider	304	26%	.418	90.3
Changeup	346	26%	.342	85.5
Curveball	157	23%	.323	85.1

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 1.4

Our model67% OVER+5.6% edgeA

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.8

Plate Appearancesavg 3.8

Hitsavg 1.4

Singlesavg 1.2

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.6

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.8

Walksavg 0.4

Tonight's lines

2026-08-04 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	7%	—	+450	+2.2	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	67%	+5.6%	-159	+2.2	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	25%	-1.1%	+280	+2.8	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	5%	-2.1%	+1400	+1.3	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	15%	+3.6%	+761	+1.6	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	10%	—	+221	+2.9	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	49%	—	+105	+1.2	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	33%	—	+140	+4.8	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=195 PA · 2026-05-19 → 2026-08-02

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	41-167	.246	.377	.132	5	1	5	28	29.3%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	8-36	.222	.333	.111	1	0	1	7	36.1%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	33-131	.252	.389	.137	4	1	4	21	27.5%
Last 15 days recent form	15-38	.395	.447	.053	2	0	0	5	23.7%
vs LAA tonight's opponent (full roster)	1-9	.111	.111	.000	0	0	0	2	33.3%
@ Oriole Park at Camden Yards tonight's stadium	2539-10649	.238	.376	.137	373	0	363	1686	28.1%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.317

wOBA0.309

delta−0.008 due

n=195 PA

Spray chart

577 balls in play since 2025· wind 8 mph blowing in

Balls in play577

HR rate3.8%

Hard-hit (95+)37%

Avg exit velo87.2 mph

Ground ball48%

Line drive23%

Fly ball25%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-02	2	0	0	0	2	0-for-2 · 2 K
2026-08-01	4	0	0	0	3	0-for-4 · 3 K
2026-07-31	4	1	0	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-07-29	3	2	0	0	1	2-for-3 · 3 RBI · 1 R · 1 SB · 1 K
2026-07-28	3	2	0	0	0	2-for-3
2026-07-27	5	4	1	0	1	4-for-5 · 1 2B · 2 R · 1 K
2026-07-26	5	0	0	2	0	0-for-3 · 1 RBI · 2 BB
2026-07-25	4	2	1	1	0	2-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-07-24	4	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-07-22	4	2	0	0	0	2-for-4

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Jackson Holliday across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.