← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits UNDER 1.5 +7.1% edge model 73% · grade A
Why: struggles vs the Slider (20% usage, .268 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits UNDER 1.5 73% +7.1% 50% LEAN Home Runs UNDER 0.5 89% +3.7% 90% STRONG
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on JJ Wetherholt, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 5-4 56% +2.0% A 7-1 88% +167.0% B 3-5 38% -3.0%
Combined 15-10 · n=25 · ROI +53.2% · avg CLV -0.2 pts · beat close 47%
Matchup JJ Wetherholt (LHB) vs David Peterson LHP favors batter favors pitcher David Peterson LHP · season · 88.8 IP · 382 BF
JJ Wetherholt hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 81-327 .248 .382 .135 12 13.0% 18.0% vs LHP 23-105 .219 .305 .086 2 14.6% 16.2%
Pitch-type matchup David Peterson's arsenal × how JJ Wetherholt hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot David Peterson throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Sinker30% 91.4 8% .353 TOP Four-Seam22% 92.2 20% .436 Slider 20% 85.0 35% .430 Changeup 14% 84.8 24% .324 Curveball 13% 79.2 32% .362
JJ Wetherholt vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Sinker145 19% .376 89.2 TOP Four-Seam314 25% .529 94.8 Slider 124 23% .268 92.5 Changeup 124 25% .331 85.2 Curveball 71 9% .253 90.5
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits50% Total Bases50% Home Runs10% Singles50% Doubles0% Triples0% Strikeouts50% Walks20% RBIs20% Runs Scored20% Hits + Runs + RBIs50% Stolen Bases10%
50% 5/10 · L10 · avg 1.1
Our model 30% UNDER -1.4% edge PASS
3 @KCR 06-21 2 vARI 06-22 0 vARI 06-23 0 vARI 06-24 0 vMIA 06-26 2 vMIA 06-27 2 vMIA 06-28 0 @ATL 06-30 0 @ATL 07-01 2 @ATL 07-02
L5 60% 3/5 L10 50% 5/10 L20 60% 12/20 2026 61% 58/95 2025 — 0/0
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.6 Plate Appearances avg 4.6
6 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 Total Bases avg 1.7
9 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 Home Runs avg 0.2
2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.7
0 1 2 0 1 0 2 1 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-07-03 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 0.5 — PASS 10% — +425 +0.9 Sign in to save —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 0.5 — PASS 54% — -170 +2.2 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits UNDER 0.5+220 Hits UNDER 1.5-192 Hits OVER 2.5+600 Home Runs UNDER 0.5-588
Price legs
Splits Career n=376 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-07-01
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
81-327 .248 .382 .135 8 0 12 49 18.0% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
23-105 .219 .305 .086 3 0 2 18 16.2% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
58-222 .261 .419 .158 5 0 10 31 18.9% Last 15 days
recent form
12-46 .261 .413 .152 1 0 2 5 15.2% vs CHC
tonight's opponent (full roster)
7-13 .538 .615 .077 1 0 0 1 7.7%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.338
wOBA 0.328
delta −0.010 due
n=373 PA
Spray chart 264 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match David Peterson's mix Balls in play 264
HR rate 4.5%
Hard-hit (95+) 46%
Avg exit velo 90.2 mph
Ground ball 40%
Line drive 24%
Fly ball 31%
// PLAYER DNA
No statistically significant HR signature found at current sample size. We won't fabricate a pattern — most hitters need at least a half-season of data before factor lifts stabilize.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-07-02 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-5 · 1 RBI · 2 R 2026-07-01 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-3 · 1 BB 2026-06-30 5 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-28 4 2 0 0 0 0 2 2-for-4 · 1 SB · 2 K 2026-06-27 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-4 2026-06-26 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-24 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-5 2026-06-23 5 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-5 · 2 K 2026-06-22 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-21 6 3 0 0 2 0 0 3-for-6 · 2 HR · 3 RBI · 3 R
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to JJ Wetherholt across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.