Chase Meidroth

2B · RHB · RHP · CHW

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

DET

Starter

Troy Melton (RHP)

Stadium

Rate Field

Model HR%

7.2%

Model Hits%

67.5%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+8.4% edgemodel 68% · grade S

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (45% usage, .345 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	68%	+8.4%	50%	LEAN
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	7%	+1.4%	10%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Chase Meidroth, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	15-10	60%	+12.7%
A	15-11	58%	+15.7%
B	8-14	36%	-25.4%

Combined 38-35 · n=73 · ROI +2.3% · avg CLV -0.7 pts · beat close 44%

Matchup

Chase Meidroth (RHB) vs Troy Melton RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Troy Melton RHP · season · 104.9 IP · 451 BF

BAA

.214

wOBA

.299

SLG

.370

ISO

.156

WHIP

1.22

HR/9

1.12

BB%

8.9%

20.0%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.6%

HH%

37.4%

FB%

34.0%

HR/FB%

11.9%

Chase Meidroth hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	274-1057	.259	.361	.102	20	10.2%	20.4%
vs RHP	183-752	.243	.330	.086	12	9.8%	21.0%

Pitch-type matchup

Troy Melton's arsenal × how Chase Meidroth hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Troy Melton throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Four-Seam	45%	97.2	25%	.381
Slider	22%	85.6	26%	.267
Sinker	11%	95.8	11%	.404
Splitter	10%	88.5	24%	.264
Cutter	9%	90.9	12%	.496
Curveball	4%	78.8	8%	.313

Chase Meidroth vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Four-Seam	1008	8%	.345	91.0
Slider	478	25%	.330	86.5
Sinker	731	7%	.307	87.5
Splitter	45	15%	.317	87.8
Cutter	224	10%	.314	84.0
Curveball	130	8%	.269	80.9

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

50%5/10 · L10 · avg 0.9

Our model68% OVER+8.4% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1

Plate Appearancesavg 4.1

Hitsavg 0.9

Singlesavg 0.5

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.7

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 0.8

Walksavg 0.5

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+525	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	68%	+8.4%	-145	-0.3	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	B	26%	+4.1%	+360	+0.9	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	7%	+1.4%	+1607	-0.5	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	5%	—	+370	-0.5	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	3%	—	+1000	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	53%	—	+105	-0.2	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	16%	—	+600	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	32%	—	+240	+3.8	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=1,177 PA · 2024-03-17 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	274-1057	.259	.361	.102	48	20	120	20.4%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	91-305	.298	.439	.141	19	8	38	19.0%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	183-752	.243	.330	.086	29	12	82	21.0%
Last 15 days recent form	11-46	.239	.413	.174	2	2	8	26.1%
vs Troy Melton tonight's starting pitcher	2-6	.333	.500	.167	1	0	0	16.7%
vs DET tonight's opponent (full roster)	15-56	.268	.339	.071	4	0	3	17.9%
@ Rate Field tonight's stadium	5474-22499	.243	.392	.148	1390	650	3217	23.2%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.280

wOBA0.318

delta+0.038 hot

n=644 PA

Spray chart

833 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play833

HR rate2.4%

Hard-hit (95+)35%

Avg exit velo86.4 mph

Ground ball52%

Line drive23%

Fly ball20%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	3	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K
2026-09-18	4	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-17	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 R
2026-09-16	5	3	1	0	0	0	3-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 R
2026-09-15	5	2	1	0	0	0	2-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-09-14	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-13	4	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-3 · 1 RBI · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-09-12	4	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-11	5	2	0	2	1	1	2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-10	3	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-2 · 1 BB · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Chase Meidroth across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.