← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +10.6% edge model 65% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (47% usage, .739 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 65% +10.6% 50% LEAN Home Runs OVER 0.5 17% +10.6% 10% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on A.J. Ewing, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 2-0 100% +64.5% A 2-4 33% -33.1% B 4-5 44% +165.0%
Combined 8-9 · n=17 · ROI +83.2% · avg CLV +0.6 pts · beat close 25%
Matchup A.J. Ewing (LHB) vs Shota Imanaga LHP favors batter favors pitcher Shota Imanaga LHP · season · 90.7 IP · 390 BF
A.J. Ewing hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 31-123 .252 .366 .114 2 10.9% 32.5% vs LHP 5-35 .143 .229 .086 0 5.4% 34.3%
Pitch-type matchup Shota Imanaga's arsenal × how A.J. Ewing hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Shota Imanaga throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam47% 91.2 14% .408 Splitter 32% 83.1 35% .332 TOP Sweeper16% 80.8 35% .437 Sinker 3% 89.8 16% .260 Curveball 2% 72.7 23% .432 Slider 0% 81.9 50% .513
A.J. Ewing vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam82 7% .739 91.2 Splitter 8 100% — — TOP Sweeper15 33% .526 94.0 Sinker 30 29% .449 81.1 Curveball 23 0% .266 76.2 Slider 38 47% .431 82.6
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits50% Total Bases50% Home Runs10% Singles30% Doubles40% Triples0% Strikeouts60% Walks30% RBIs40% Runs Scored10% Hits + Runs + RBIs50% Stolen Bases0%
50% 5/10 · L10 · avg 0.9
Our model 65% OVER +10.6% edge S
1 vSTL 06-11 0 vATL 06-12 0 vATL 06-13 3 vATL 06-14 0 @CIN 06-15 0 @CIN 06-16 1 @CIN 06-17 2 @PHI 06-18 0 @PHI 06-20 2 @PHI 06-21
L5 60% 3/5 L10 50% 5/10 L20 55% 11/20 2026 59% 29/49 2025 — 0/0
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.6 Plate Appearances avg 3.6
4 4 1 5 4 5 5 3 1 4 Total Bases avg 1.6
2 0 0 7 0 0 2 3 0 2 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.8
2 2 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 11% — +550 -0.6 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 65% +10.6% -120 +0.0 Sign in 1.5 OVER A 24% +5.4% +450 -1.8 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 4% +0.4% +2500 +0.6 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 17% +10.6% +1527 -0.6 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 11% — +325 -1.3 — 1.5 — S 9% — +1000 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 42% — +139 -1.6 — 1.5 — PASS 8% — +800 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — S 42% — +220 +0.0 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -120 +450 +2500 +1527
Price legs
Splits Career n=138 PA · 2026-05-12 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
31-123 .252 .366 .114 6 1 2 15 32.5% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
5-35 .143 .229 .086 1 1 0 2 34.3% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
26-88 .295 .420 .125 5 0 2 13 31.8% Last 15 days
recent form
10-40 .250 .450 .200 5 0 1 4 25.0% @ Citi Field
tonight's stadium
780-2211 .353 .677 .324 299 0 139 111 25.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.322
wOBA 0.310
delta −0.012 due
n=138 PA
Spray chart 83 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Shota Imanaga's mix Balls in play 83
HR rate 2.4%
Hard-hit (95+) 40%
Avg exit velo 87.3 mph
Ground ball 45%
Line drive 27%
Fly ball 23%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-4 · 1 RBI 2026-06-20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-06-18 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 2-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 RBI 2026-06-17 5 1 1 0 0 1 1 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 RBI · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-16 5 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-15 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-14 5 3 1 0 1 0 1 3-for-5 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R · 1 K 2026-06-13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-06-12 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-11 4 1 1 0 0 0 2 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to A.J. Ewing across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
