Luke Keaschall

2B · RHB · RHP · MIN

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

Starter

Michael Wacha (RHP)

Stadium

Kauffman Stadium

Model HR%

16.6%

Model Hits%

74.6%

Model K%

27.7%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+9.6% edgemodel 17% · grade S

Why: strong vs the Cutter (15% usage, .377 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	17%	+9.6%	20%	CAUTION
Hits	OVER 0.5	75%	+3.1%	70%	STRONG

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Luke Keaschall, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	11-5	69%	+26.6%
A	6-7	46%	-11.1%
B	8-3	73%	+48.4%

Combined 25-15 · n=40 · ROI +20.3% · avg CLV +0.2 pts · beat close 38%

Matchup

Luke Keaschall (RHB) vs Michael Wacha RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Michael Wacha RHP · season · 140.0 IP · 602 BF

BAA

.238

wOBA

.321

SLG

.409

ISO

.171

WHIP

1.28

HR/9

1.16

BB%

7.8%

19.9%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.7%

HH%

39.2%

FB%

35.9%

HR/FB%

13.5%

Luke Keaschall hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	155-567	.273	.393	.120	12	12.1%	16.2%
vs RHP	117-389	.301	.442	.141	10	12.4%	14.1%

Pitch-type matchup

Michael Wacha's arsenal × how Luke Keaschall hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Michael Wacha throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Four-Seam	28%	93.0	16%	.389
Changeup	24%	80.0	28%	.297
TOPCutter	15%	88.4	15%	.372
Sinker	14%	93.1	11%	.396
Slider	11%	84.8	28%	.372
Curveball	8%	75.4	31%	.344

Luke Keaschall vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Four-Seam	406	10%	.326	88.2
Changeup	196	26%	.312	83.3
TOPCutter	161	15%	.377	89.7
Sinker	323	9%	.311	86.4
Slider	248	21%	.279	81.2
Curveball	91	13%	.216	88.0

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 0.9

Our model75% OVER+3.1% edgeB

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9

Plate Appearancesavg 3.9

Hitsavg 0.9

Singlesavg 0.6

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.6

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 0.5

Walksavg 0.4

Tonight's lines

2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	11%	—	+358	+1.8	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	75%	+3.1%	-250	+7.8	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	33%	+2.0%	+225	+3.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	8%	-4.3%	+750	+3.4	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	17%	+9.6%	+1323	-3.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	11%	—	+277	+0.4	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	9%	—	+700	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	55%	—	-140	+7.1	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	17%	—	+400	+3.3	Sign in to save	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	28%	—	-137	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	42%	—	+139	+2.2	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=645 PA · 2025-04-18 → 2026-08-04

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	155-567	.273	.393	.120	30	1	12	78	16.2%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	38-178	.213	.287	.073	7	0	2	23	20.8%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	117-389	.301	.442	.141	23	1	10	55	14.1%
Last 15 days recent form	10-37	.270	.459	.189	1	0	2	7	16.2%
vs Michael Wacha tonight's starting pitcher	1-6	.167	.167	.000	0	0	0	0	16.7%
@ Kauffman Stadium tonight's stadium	192-768	.250	.250	.000	0	0	0	0	25.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.294

wOBA0.329

delta+0.035 hot

n=434 PA

Spray chart

470 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play470

HR rate2.6%

Hard-hit (95+)29%

Avg exit velo84.7 mph

Ground ball41%

Line drive26%

Fly ball26%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-04	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-08-02	4	2	0	1	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-08-01	4	1	0	1	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-07-31	4	2	1	0	1	1	2-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-07-30	3	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-3
2026-07-29	3	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-3
2026-07-28	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4
2026-07-26	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-07-24	4	0	0	0	2	1	0-for-2 · 1 SB · 2 BB · 1 K
2026-07-23	5	1	0	0	1	0	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 BB

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Luke Keaschall across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.