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Marcus Semien
2B · RHB · RHP · NYM
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Marcus Semien, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-2 | 71% | +199.9% |
| A | 2-1 | 67% | +40.0% |
| B | 3-2 | 60% | +112.7% |
Combined 10-5 · n=15 · ROI +138.8% · avg CLV +0.9 pts · beat close 67%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.1Plate Appearancesavg 3.1
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.3
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.2
Splits
Career n=389 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-02
xStats luck
xwOBA0.304
wOBA0.275
delta−0.029 due
n=386 PA
Spray chart
672 balls in play since 2025Balls in play672
HR rate4.3%
Hard-hit (95+)38%
Avg exit velo87.9 mph
Ground ball34%
Line drive24%
Fly ball33%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-45.5%significant
n=424 games · 4/71 HR when active
-38.2%significant
n=424 games · 5/72 HR when active
-36.9%significant
n=427 games · 6/80 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-30
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
0.55× HR rate
71 yes / 353 no · 55 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
0.62× HR rate
72 yes / 352 no · 55 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
0.63× HR rate
80 yes / 347 no · 56 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+28%
169 yes / 258 no · 56 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−22%
107 yes / 320 no · 56 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+20%
125 yes / 286 no · 54 HRs
// 22 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
−31%
12 yes / 414 no · 56 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−20%
225 yes / 202 no · 56 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−17%
101 yes / 325 no · 56 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+16%
337 yes / 89 no · 56 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−15%
66 yes / 328 no · 51 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−15%
48 yes / 379 no · 56 HRs
Playing at home
−14%
217 yes / 210 no · 56 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−10%
195 yes / 231 no · 56 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−10%
3 yes / 408 no · 54 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−8%
123 yes / 304 no · 56 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+7%
76 yes / 224 no · 37 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−6%
252 yes / 175 no · 56 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−5%
74 yes / 351 no · 55 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
233 yes / 189 no · 55 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
219 yes / 195 no · 54 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
48 yes / 318 no · 48 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
171 yes / 248 no · 55 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
280 yes / 144 no · 55 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 427 no · 56 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 424 no · 55 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 427 no · 56 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Marcus Semien across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.