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Marcus Semien
2B · RHB · RHP · NYM
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+6.3% edgemodel 72% · grade A
Why: NOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260): -49.1% lift over 343 games · strong vs the Changeup (37% usage, .462 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Marcus Semien, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 0-1 | 0% | -100.0% |
| A | 2-6 | 25% | -59.6% |
| B | 4-2 | 67% | +177.9% |
Combined 6-9 · n=15 · ROI +32.7% · avg CLV -5.3 pts · beat close 44%
Matchup
Marcus Semien (RHB) vs Cristopher Sánchez LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Cristopher Sánchez's arsenal × how Marcus Semien hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1Plate Appearancesavg 4.1
Hitsavg 0.8
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.3
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.3
Walksavg 0.5
Tonight's lines
2026-06-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=2,465 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-06-18
xStats luck
xwOBA0.308
wOBA0.292
delta−0.016 due
n=318 PA
Spray chart
627 balls in play since 2025· wind 13 mph cross-windBalls in play627
HR rate4.1%
Hard-hit (95+)38%
Avg exit velo88.0 mph
Ground ball34%
Line drive25%
Fly ball32%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-49.1%significant
n=418 games · 4/75 HR when active
-31.9%significant
n=413 games · 5/63 HR when active
-26.5%significant
n=415 games · 7/76 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16
// TONIGHT
3 / 3FAVORABLE
Mostly favorable
// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT
- +34% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
- -32% HR rate when vs fly-ball-prone pitcher (fb% allowed > 40%).
- -27% HR rate when vs hr-prone pitcher (hr/pa > 3.8%).
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
0.51× HR rate
75 yes / 343 no · 56 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+34%
160 yes / 258 no · 56 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−32%
63 yes / 350 no · 55 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
−27%
76 yes / 339 no · 55 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−21%
104 yes / 314 no · 56 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+20%
122 yes / 280 no · 54 HRs
// 22 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
−31%
12 yes / 405 no · 56 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−16%
98 yes / 319 no · 56 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+16%
330 yes / 87 no · 56 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−16%
65 yes / 320 no · 51 HRs
Playing at home
−15%
214 yes / 204 no · 56 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−14%
220 yes / 198 no · 56 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−13%
46 yes / 372 no · 56 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−13%
248 yes / 170 no · 56 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−13%
249 yes / 164 no · 55 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−10%
123 yes / 295 no · 56 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−10%
3 yes / 399 no · 54 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−8%
189 yes / 228 no · 56 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+8%
73 yes / 218 no · 37 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
47 yes / 310 no · 48 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
214 yes / 191 no · 54 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
175 yes / 235 no · 55 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
77 yes / 339 no · 55 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
233 yes / 180 no · 55 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 413 no · 55 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 418 no · 56 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 418 no · 56 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Marcus Semien across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.