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Bryce Harper
1B · LHB · RHP · PHI
Tonight's top play
Hits UNDER 1.5+1.1% edgemodel 71% · grade PASS
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Bryce Harper, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 1-3 | 25% | -61.0% |
| A | 4-6 | 40% | +27.2% |
| B | 5-8 | 38% | +13.9% |
Combined 10-17 · n=27 · ROI +7.7% · avg CLV -0.3 pts · beat close 16%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.5Plate Appearancesavg 4.5
Hitsavg 1.2
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 2.3
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 1.2
Walksavg 0.5
Tonight's lines
2026-07-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=376 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-07-01
xStats luck
xwOBA0.382
wOBA0.375
delta−0.007 due
n=373 PA
Spray chart
656 balls in play since 2025Balls in play656
HR rate7.2%
Hard-hit (95+)49%
Avg exit velo91.0 mph
Ground ball43%
Line drive26%
Fly ball27%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+31.9%significant
n=380 games · 38/182 HR when active
+26.5%significant
n=378 games · 13/55 HR when active
-19.4%small sample
n=323 games · 6/45 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-30
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+33%
296 yes / 84 no · 68 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+32%
182 yes / 198 no · 68 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+27%
174 yes / 95 no · 49 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−27%
156 yes / 216 no · 66 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+26%
55 yes / 323 no · 68 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−26%
239 yes / 142 no · 68 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+23%
119 yes / 262 no · 68 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+20%
34 yes / 347 no · 68 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−20%
78 yes / 293 no · 67 HRs
// 19 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−19%
45 yes / 278 no · 59 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
+16%
1 yes / 380 no · 68 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+16%
21 yes / 359 no · 68 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+14%
233 yes / 148 no · 68 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−14%
42 yes / 339 no · 68 HRs
Playing at home
+14%
199 yes / 182 no · 68 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+9%
72 yes / 294 no · 65 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+8%
61 yes / 318 no · 68 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+7%
155 yes / 226 no · 68 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−7%
8 yes / 373 no · 68 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+6%
9 yes / 362 no · 67 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
91 yes / 288 no · 68 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
99 yes / 282 no · 68 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
205 yes / 160 no · 65 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
204 yes / 172 no · 67 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
271 yes / 107 no · 68 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
neutral
359 yes / 22 no · 68 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 378 no · 68 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Bryce Harper across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.