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Bryce Harper
1B · LHB · RHP · PHI
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+4.7% edgemodel 25% · grade B
Why: Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%): +45.8% lift over 59 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (31% usage, .555 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Bryce Harper, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 6-6 | 50% | -24.2% |
| A | 12-13 | 48% | +8.7% |
| B | 7-18 | 28% | -24.4% |
Combined 25-37 · n=62 · ROI -11.0% · avg CLV +0.3 pts · beat close 37%
Matchup
Bryce Harper (LHB) vs Connor Prielipp LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Connor Prielipp's arsenal × how Bryce Harper hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.8Plate Appearancesavg 4.8
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.5
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.9
Walksavg 1.5
Tonight's lines
2026-08-17 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=2,412 PA · 2023-05-02 → 2026-08-13
xStats luck
xwOBA0.378
wOBA0.367
delta−0.011 due
n=531 PA
Spray chart
744 balls in play since 2025· wind 6 mph blowing inBalls in play744
HR rate7.0%
Hard-hit (95+)47%
Avg exit velo90.6 mph
Ground ball44%
Line drive25%
Fly ball27%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+45.8%significant
n=414 games · 16/59 HR when active
+30.4%significant
n=416 games · 41/199 HR when active
-19.4%small sample
n=354 games · 7/52 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-11
// TONIGHT
3 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +41% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
- +30% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).
- +25% HR rate when platoon advantage (lhb-vs-rhp or rhb-vs-lhp).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+46%
59 yes / 355 no · 74 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
+41%
326 yes / 90 no · 74 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight
+30%
199 yes / 217 no · 74 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−27%
99 yes / 307 no · 73 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)tonight
+25%
199 yes / 102 no · 54 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−25%
264 yes / 153 no · 74 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+23%
119 yes / 298 no · 74 HRs
// 21 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−19%
52 yes / 302 no · 64 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−18%
164 yes / 244 no · 72 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
+16%
1 yes / 416 no · 74 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+16%
21 yes / 395 no · 74 HRs
Playing at home
+15%
220 yes / 197 no · 74 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+15%
42 yes / 375 no · 74 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−14%
226 yes / 175 no · 71 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+13%
256 yes / 160 no · 74 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−13%
48 yes / 368 no · 74 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+10%
82 yes / 319 no · 71 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−9%
9 yes / 408 no · 74 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−8%
300 yes / 114 no · 74 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+6%
9 yes / 397 no · 73 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+5%
191 yes / 226 no · 74 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
94 yes / 321 no · 74 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
70 yes / 345 no · 74 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
neutral
393 yes / 24 no · 74 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
99 yes / 318 no · 74 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
222 yes / 190 no · 73 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 414 no · 74 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Bryce Harper across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.