Max Muncy

3B · LHB · RHP · LAD

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

CIN

Starter

Andrew Abbott (LHP)

Stadium

Great American Ball Park

Model HR%

19.7%

Model Hits%

65.3%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs UNDER 0.5+5.1% edgemodel 80% · grade A

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	UNDER 0.5	80%	+5.1%	80%	STRONG
Hits	OVER 0.5	66%	+0.4%	60%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Max Muncy, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	9-8	53%	-2.1%
A	8-7	53%	-4.6%
B	3-8	27%	-23.1%

Combined 20-23 · n=43 · ROI -8.3% · avg CLV -2.5 pts · beat close 35%

Matchup

Max Muncy (LHB) vs Andrew Abbott LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Andrew Abbott LHP · season · 166.7 IP · 717 BF

BAA

.261

wOBA

.341

SLG

.435

ISO

.174

WHIP

1.45

HR/9

1.40

BB%

10.3%

17.8%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.3%

HH%

40.6%

FB%

35.9%

HR/FB%

16.9%

Max Muncy hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	119-468	.254	.496	.241	29	13.2%	29.5%
vs LHP	29-111	.261	.486	.225	6	13.3%	32.4%

Pitch-type matchup

Andrew Abbott's arsenal × how Max Muncy hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Andrew Abbott throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	48%	92.7	14%	.364
TOPChangeup	19%	85.1	28%	.341
Sweeper	18%	82.4	31%	.332
Curveball	12%	80.2	22%	.316
Cutter	3%	88.7	25%	.394

Max Muncy vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	778	14%	.506	95.0
TOPChangeup	298	36%	.477	88.2
Sweeper	192	36%	.340	89.3
Curveball	304	32%	.396	90.4
Cutter	238	14%	.375	90.0

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 1.1

Our model66% OVER+0.4% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3

Plate Appearancesavg 4.3

Hitsavg 1.1

Singlesavg 0.6

Doublesavg 0.3

Total Basesavg 2.0

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 1.3

Walksavg 0.4

Tonight's lines

2026-09-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	66%	+0.4%	-190	+8.6	Sign in to save	Sign in
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	65%	-0.2%	-190	+8.6	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	B	79%	+3.7%	-303	-1.7	Sign in to save	Sign in
BEST0.5	UNDER	A	80%	+5.1%	-303	-1.7	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	14%	—	+125	+7.7	Sign in to save	—
0.5	—	S	14%	—	+125	+7.7	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	46%	—	+155	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
0.5	—	A	43%	—	+155	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=539 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-14

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	119-468	.254	.496	.241	24	1	29	71	29.5%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	29-111	.261	.486	.225	5	1	6	17	32.4%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	90-357	.252	.499	.246	19	0	23	54	28.6%
Last 15 days recent form	11-41	.268	.488	.220	3	0	2	7	36.6%
vs CIN tonight's opponent (full roster)	6-35	.171	.314	.143	2	0	1	8	34.3%
@ Great American Ball Park tonight's stadium	0-604	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	75.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.340

wOBA0.357

delta+0.017 hot

n=539 PA

Spray chart

608 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph blowing out

Balls in play608

HR rate8.4%

Hard-hit (95+)48%

Avg exit velo90.3 mph

Ground ball36%

Line drive22%

Fly ball36%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+44.8%significant

n=407 games · 50/230 HR when active

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

-29.2%significant

n=396 games · 8/68 HR when active

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

-21.1%significant

n=421 games · 55/324 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15

// TONIGHT

3 / 4HELPING · IN PLAY

Leaning favorable

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+53% HR rate when hot streak (l5 avg ev > career baseline).
+45% HR rate when vs fastball-heavy pitcher (fb% ≥ 55%).
+43% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
−21% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

1.71× HR rate

275 yes / 149 no · 77 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)tonight

1.53× HR rate

175 yes / 243 no · 76 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)tonight

+45%

230 yes / 177 no · 75 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight

+43%

307 yes / 116 no · 77 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−29%

68 yes / 328 no · 72 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

+27%

170 yes / 254 no · 77 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−26%

31 yes / 391 no · 77 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−25%

30 yes / 393 no · 77 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+25%

50 yes / 372 no · 77 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+21%

86 yes / 335 no · 77 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight

−21%

324 yes / 97 no · 77 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−20%

53 yes / 371 no · 77 HRs

// 16 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

−19%

52 yes / 369 no · 77 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

−17%

81 yes / 313 no · 71 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+15%

227 yes / 84 no · 55 HRs

Playing at home

+14%

227 yes / 197 no · 77 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+13%

82 yes / 340 no · 77 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+11%

169 yes / 255 no · 77 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−7%

135 yes / 289 no · 77 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−7%

2 yes / 392 no · 71 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

−5%

81 yes / 339 no · 77 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

1 yes / 423 no · 77 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

neutral

173 yes / 245 no · 76 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

neutral

189 yes / 233 no · 77 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

neutral

32 yes / 327 no · 65 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 421 no · 77 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 424 no · 77 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-15	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-14	4	0	0	0	0	3	0-for-4 · 3 K
2026-09-13	5	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-5 · 2 K
2026-09-12	4	1	0	1	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-11	5	3	0	0	1	0	3-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-09-09	5	1	0	1	0	3	1-for-5 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 3 K
2026-09-08	4	2	1	0	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 K
2026-09-07	4	1	1	0	2	0	1-for-2 · 1 2B · 2 R · 2 BB
2026-09-06	4	3	1	0	0	0	3-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 R
2026-09-04	4	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Max Muncy across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.