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Max Muncy
3B · LHB · RHP · LAD
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Max Muncy, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 4-1 | 80% | +36.1% |
| A | 3-1 | 75% | +109.4% |
| B | 0-2 | 0% | -100.0% |
Combined 7-4 · n=11 · ROI +38.0% · avg CLV -1.4 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup
Max Muncy (LHB) vs Connor Prielipp LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Connor Prielipp's arsenal × how Max Muncy hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.6Plate Appearancesavg 3.6
Hitsavg 0.8
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.6
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.6
Tonight's lines
2026-06-24 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=1,721 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-06-22
xStats luck
xwOBA0.373
wOBA0.380
delta+0.007 hot
n=290 PA
Spray chart
458 balls in play since 2025· wind 4 mph cross-windBalls in play458
HR rate8.5%
Hard-hit (95+)50%
Avg exit velo90.1 mph
Ground ball37%
Line drive22%
Fly ball35%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-39.8%significant
n=353 games · 3/42 HR when active
-32.8%significant
n=358 games · 4/43 HR when active
+47.3%significant
n=348 games · 43/196 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-23
// TONIGHT
1 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +52% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
1.71× HR rate
233 yes / 125 no · 65 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
1.52× HR rate
257 yes / 100 no · 65 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+48%
147 yes / 205 no · 64 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+47%
196 yes / 152 no · 64 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
0.60× HR rate
42 yes / 311 no · 64 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+38%
81 yes / 274 no · 65 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−33%
21 yes / 336 no · 65 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−33%
43 yes / 315 no · 65 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−31%
27 yes / 330 no · 65 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−31%
55 yes / 277 no · 60 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−29%
248 yes / 105 no · 64 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+24%
143 yes / 215 no · 65 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−24%
36 yes / 293 no · 59 HRs
Playing at home
+24%
193 yes / 165 no · 65 HRs
// 14 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+14%
114 yes / 244 no · 65 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+10%
188 yes / 65 no · 43 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+9%
75 yes / 281 no · 65 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−9%
174 yes / 182 no · 65 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−8%
124 yes / 234 no · 65 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
−8%
72 yes / 283 no · 65 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−7%
2 yes / 327 no · 59 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+5%
41 yes / 316 no · 65 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 357 no · 65 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
28 yes / 279 no · 56 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 358 no · 65 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
160 yes / 193 no · 64 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 353 no · 64 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Max Muncy across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.