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Willson Contreras
1B · RHB · RHP · BOS
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Willson Contreras, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-3 | 63% | +18.3% |
| A | 4-1 | 80% | +117.2% |
| B | 5-3 | 63% | +85.6% |
Combined 14-7 · n=21 · ROI +67.5% · avg CLV -0.6 pts · beat close 29%
Matchup
Willson Contreras (RHB) vs Edgardo Henriquez RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Edgardo Henriquez's arsenal × how Willson Contreras hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.7Plate Appearancesavg 3.7
Hitsavg 0.6
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 0.9
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.1
Walksavg 0.9
Tonight's lines
2026-07-31 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=430 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-07-29
xStats luck
xwOBA0.364
wOBA0.383
delta+0.019 hot
n=429 PA
Spray chart
618 balls in play since 2025Balls in play618
HR rate6.8%
Hard-hit (95+)44%
Avg exit velo89.1 mph
Ground ball41%
Line drive25%
Fly ball28%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+24.3%significant
n=389 games · 30/164 HR when active
+22.7%significant
n=388 games · 11/54 HR when active
+18.2%small sample
n=343 games · 12/65 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
3 / 4HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +37% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
- +28% HR rate when hr-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10).
- +24% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).
- −24% HR rate when playing at home.
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+37%
179 yes / 212 no · 62 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+34%
342 yes / 49 no · 62 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)tonight
+28%
113 yes / 277 no · 62 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight
+24%
164 yes / 225 no · 62 HRs
Playing at hometonight
−24%
195 yes / 196 no · 62 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+23%
54 yes / 334 no · 62 HRs
// 22 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+18%
65 yes / 278 no · 53 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+18%
86 yes / 303 no · 62 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−14%
33 yes / 357 no · 62 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+14%
90 yes / 291 no · 60 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−12%
283 yes / 107 no · 62 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+12%
20 yes / 371 no · 62 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+11%
211 yes / 164 no · 59 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+11%
175 yes / 211 no · 62 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+8%
147 yes / 233 no · 61 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+7%
76 yes / 313 no · 62 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−7%
276 yes / 112 no · 62 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
8 yes / 373 no · 60 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
97 yes / 294 no · 62 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
72 yes / 317 no · 62 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
81 yes / 176 no · 46 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
neutral
211 yes / 180 no · 62 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
73 yes / 290 no · 58 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
45 yes / 345 no · 62 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 391 no · 62 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 388 no · 62 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 391 no · 62 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Willson Contreras across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.