← BACK TO SLATE
Willson Contreras
1B · RHB · RHP · BOS
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Willson Contreras, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 8-9 | 47% | -8.4% |
| A | 3-4 | 43% | -13.1% |
| B | 7-4 | 64% | +69.3% |
Combined 18-17 · n=35 · ROI +15.1% · avg CLV -0.5 pts · beat close 27%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2Plate Appearancesavg 4.2
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.2
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.0
Walksavg 0.4
Splits
Career n=2,008 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-17
xStats luck
xwOBA0.365
wOBA0.384
delta+0.019 hot
n=549 PA
Spray chart
688 balls in play since 2025Balls in play688
HR rate6.8%
Hard-hit (95+)43%
Avg exit velo88.6 mph
Ground ball41%
Line drive25%
Fly ball27%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+48.6%significant
n=411 games · 15/62 HR when active
+23.1%significant
n=412 games · 30/166 HR when active
+18.2%small sample
n=362 games · 12/66 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+49%
62 yes / 349 no · 65 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+34%
201 yes / 213 no · 65 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+33%
365 yes / 49 no · 65 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+25%
128 yes / 285 no · 65 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+23%
166 yes / 246 no · 65 HRs
Playing at home
−21%
206 yes / 208 no · 65 HRs
// 22 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
−18%
36 yes / 377 no · 65 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+18%
66 yes / 296 no · 55 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−18%
300 yes / 113 no · 65 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+9%
223 yes / 172 no · 61 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+9%
87 yes / 325 no · 65 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−8%
299 yes / 112 no · 65 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+7%
96 yes / 308 no · 63 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+7%
181 yes / 228 no · 65 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−7%
49 yes / 364 no · 65 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+5%
23 yes / 391 no · 65 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
8 yes / 396 no · 63 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
98 yes / 316 no · 65 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
79 yes / 333 no · 65 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
155 yes / 248 no · 64 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
85 yes / 191 no · 48 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
75 yes / 311 no · 61 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
77 yes / 335 no · 65 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
neutral
222 yes / 192 no · 65 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 414 no · 65 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 411 no · 65 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 414 no · 65 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Willson Contreras across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.