Manny Machado

3B · RHB · RHP · SDP

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

ATL

Starter

Grant Holmes (RHP)

Stadium

Petco Park

Model HR%

21.3%

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Manny Machado, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	1-1	50%	-16.0%
A	1-0	100%	+636.0%
B	1-3	25%	-62.2%

Combined 3-4 · n=7 · ROI +50.7% · avg CLV -1.6 pts · beat close 25%

Matchup

Manny Machado (RHB) vs Grant Holmes RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Grant Holmes RHP · season · 74.7 IP · 321 BF

BAA

.239

wOBA

.333

SLG

.415

ISO

.176

WHIP

1.41

HR/9

1.57

BB%

11.5%

20.3%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.7%

HH%

49.1%

FB%

33.5%

HR/FB%

24.1%

Manny Machado hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	530-2125	.249	.440	.190	102	8.2%	21.3%
vs RHP	396-1614	.245	.426	.180	72	7.6%	21.3%

Pitch-type matchup

Grant Holmes's arsenal × how Manny Machado hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Grant Holmes throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPSlider	36%	85.3	40%	.381
TOPFour-Seam	33%	94.4	14%	.433
TOPCurveball	14%	83.3	30%	.324
Cutter	12%	92.1	13%	.339
Changeup	3%	89.7	18%	.341
Sinker	2%	93.5	0%	.294

Manny Machado vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPSlider	545	31%	.384	89.5
TOPFour-Seam	1162	23%	.473	97.7
TOPCurveball	178	25%	.422	85.5
Cutter	216	25%	.374	92.6
Changeup	344	29%	.429	90.7
Sinker	666	13%	.370	93.4

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 0.9

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4

Plate Appearancesavg 4.4

Hitsavg 0.9

Singlesavg 0.2

Doublesavg 0.5

Total Basesavg 2.0

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 0.9

Walksavg 0.4

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	79%	—	—	—	Sign in

Splits

Career n=2,316 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-06-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	530-2125	.249	.440	.190	98	102	191	21.3%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	134-511	.262	.483	.221	23	30	59	21.3%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	396-1614	.245	.426	.180	75	72	132	21.3%
Last 15 days recent form	10-50	.200	.440	.240	6	2	3	18.0%
vs ATL tonight's opponent (full roster)	20-50	.400	.680	.280	5	3	4	18.0%
@ Petco Park tonight's stadium	112-1370	.082	.164	.082	112	0	46	17.8%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.316

wOBA0.288

delta−0.028 due

n=316 PA

Spray chart

719 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play719

HR rate5.8%

Hard-hit (95+)49%

Avg exit velo91.7 mph

Ground ball41%

Line drive25%

Fly ball27%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

-41.2%significant

n=399 games · 2/37 HR when active

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

-37.5%significant

n=397 games · 25/201 HR when active

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+31.8%significant

n=393 games · 47/247 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16

// TONIGHT

3 / 9FAVORABLE

Mixed, leaning against

// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT

-41% HR rate when ≥1 career hr vs this pitcher.
+32% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
+29% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

1.68× HR rate

81 yes / 199 no · 48 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

1.61× HR rate

365 yes / 34 no · 67 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

1.54× HR rate

164 yes / 225 no · 66 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

0.59× HR rate

37 yes / 362 no · 67 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

0.60× HR rate

260 yes / 139 no · 67 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

0.63× HR rate

201 yes / 196 no · 67 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+32%

247 yes / 146 no · 67 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+29%

173 yes / 226 no · 67 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+29%

48 yes / 347 no · 66 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+25%

81 yes / 316 no · 67 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−24%

38 yes / 357 no · 66 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+21%

83 yes / 312 no · 67 HRs

// 16 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+16%

54 yes / 339 no · 67 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−13%

204 yes / 190 no · 67 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−13%

4 yes / 395 no · 67 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

−12%

203 yes / 186 no · 66 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−10%

118 yes / 281 no · 67 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

−8%

41 yes / 346 no · 64 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

−6%

47 yes / 298 no · 56 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

−6%

314 yes / 84 no · 67 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

neutral

91 yes / 304 no · 67 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

neutral

5 yes / 382 no · 64 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

neutral

54 yes / 323 no · 65 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

neutral

17 yes / 381 no · 67 HRs

Playing at home

neutral

213 yes / 186 no · 67 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 399 no · 67 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 393 no · 67 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	4	1	0	0	1	2	1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-06-20	5	2	1	1	0	0	2-for-5 · 1 HR · 5 RBI · 1 R
2026-06-19	5	0	0	0	0	3	0-for-5 · 3 K
2026-06-17	5	1	1	0	1	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-06-16	4	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-06-15	3	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-3
2026-06-14	5	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-4 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-06-13	5	1	0	1	0	0	1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R
2026-06-12	4	2	2	0	0	0	2-for-4 · 2 2B · 1 R
2026-06-10	4	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Manny Machado across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.