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Max Kepler
LF · LHB · ARI
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Max Kepler, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 1-3 | 25% | -58.6% |
| A | 1-0 | 100% | +141.0% |
| B | 2-0 | 100% | +116.3% |
Combined 4-3 · n=7 · ROI +19.9% · avg CLV +4.8 pts · beat close 40%
Matchup
Max Kepler (LHB) vs Gavin Williams RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Gavin Williams's arsenal × how Max Kepler hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.8Plate Appearancesavg 3.8
Hitsavg 0.9
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 1.5
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.5
Walksavg 0.5
Tonight's lines
2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=85 PA · 2026-06-26 → 2026-07-29
xStats luck
xwOBA0.332
wOBA0.323
delta−0.009 due
n=85 PA
Spray chart
411 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph blowing inBalls in play411
HR rate4.9%
Hard-hit (95+)46%
Avg exit velo90.0 mph
Ground ball35%
Line drive25%
Fly ball32%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+27.5%significant
n=280 games · 26/145 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
2 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +36% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).
- +23% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
1.52× HR rate
185 yes / 94 no · 44 HRs
Playing at home
+43%
142 yes / 138 no · 44 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
0.63× HR rate
24 yes / 255 no · 44 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)tonight
+36%
39 yes / 241 no · 44 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+27%
145 yes / 135 no · 44 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+23%
129 yes / 151 no · 44 HRs
// 6 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−19%
92 yes / 188 no · 44 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+9%
95 yes / 185 no · 44 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Max Kepler across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.