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Max Kepler
LF · LHB · ARI
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Max Kepler, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 1-3 | 25% | -58.6% |
| A | 1-1 | 50% | +20.5% |
| B | 5-2 | 71% | +46.0% |
Combined 7-6 · n=13 · ROI +9.9% · avg CLV +2.7 pts · beat close 50%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9Plate Appearancesavg 3.9
Hitsavg 0.5
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 0.6
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 1.1
Walksavg 0.4
Splits
Career n=1,571 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-08-16
xStats luck
xwOBA0.305
wOBA0.303
delta−0.002 due
n=124 PA
Spray chart
435 balls in play since 2025Balls in play435
HR rate4.6%
Hard-hit (95+)43%
Avg exit velo89.7 mph
Ground ball35%
Line drive25%
Fly ball33%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+27.5%significant
n=280 games · 26/145 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
1.52× HR rate
185 yes / 94 no · 44 HRs
Playing at home
+43%
142 yes / 138 no · 44 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
0.63× HR rate
24 yes / 255 no · 44 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+36%
39 yes / 241 no · 44 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+27%
145 yes / 135 no · 44 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+23%
129 yes / 151 no · 44 HRs
// 6 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−19%
92 yes / 188 no · 44 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+9%
95 yes / 185 no · 44 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Max Kepler across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.