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Josh Bell
DH · SHB · RHP · MIN
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+6.0% edgemodel 66% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (42% usage, .417 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Josh Bell, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 8-4 | 67% | +49.5% |
| A | 9-4 | 69% | +83.6% |
| B | 8-9 | 47% | +80.8% |
Combined 25-17 · n=42 · ROI +72.7% · avg CLV +0.1 pts · beat close 46%
Matchup
Josh Bell (SHB) vs Carlos Rodón LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Carlos Rodón's arsenal × how Josh Bell hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0Plate Appearancesavg 4.0
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 2.0
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.4
Tonight's lines
2026-09-15 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=598 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-12
xStats luck
xwOBA0.330
wOBA0.318
delta−0.012 due
n=597 PA
Spray chart
814 balls in play since 2025· wind 1 mph cross-windBalls in play814
HR rate5.0%
Hard-hit (95+)44%
Avg exit velo90.0 mph
Ground ball44%
Line drive22%
Fly ball27%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+3.6%small sample
n=331 games · 20/147 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
0 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning against
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −27% HR rate when playing at home.
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Rested (2+ days off)
−29%
21 yes / 312 no · 44 HRs
Playing at hometonight
−27%
168 yes / 166 no · 44 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+23%
139 yes / 195 no · 44 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−22%
44 yes / 290 no · 44 HRs
// 8 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+20%
127 yes / 207 no · 44 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+9%
235 yes / 98 no · 44 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+6%
101 yes / 233 no · 44 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
147 yes / 184 no · 44 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Josh Bell across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.