Josh Bell

DH · SHB · RHP · MIN

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

LAA

Starter

Ryan Johnson (RHP)

Stadium

Angel Stadium

Model HR%

24.3%

Model Hits%

64.5%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+7.0% edgemodel 24% · grade A

Why: strong vs the Sweeper (20% usage, .409 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	24%	+7.0%	20%	CAUTION
Hits	UNDER 0.5	36%	+1.9%	40%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Josh Bell, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	8-4	67%	+49.5%
A	9-6	60%	+59.1%
B	9-11	45%	+62.1%

Combined 26-21 · n=47 · ROI +57.9% · avg CLV -0.4 pts · beat close 44%

Matchup

Josh Bell (SHB) vs Ryan Johnson RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Ryan Johnson RHP · season · 99.3 IP · 427 BF

BAA

.237

wOBA

.345

SLG

.416

ISO

.179

WHIP

1.38

HR/9

1.63

BB%

11.0%

18.5%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

5.0%

HH%

36.6%

FB%

44.4%

HR/FB%

14.5%

Josh Bell hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	526-2191	.240	.402	.162	83	10.1%	22.0%
vs RHP	372-1538	.242	.402	.160	59	10.2%	22.0%

Pitch-type matchup

Ryan Johnson's arsenal × how Josh Bell hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Ryan Johnson throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Cutter	39%	90.7	25%	.313
Sinker	22%	93.6	9%	.413
TOPSweeper	20%	80.8	32%	.363
Splitter	15%	84.6	38%	.257
Slider	3%	86.5	25%	.424
Four-Seam	1%	94.9	0%	1.423

Josh Bell vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Cutter	259	16%	.335	87.4
Sinker	380	15%	.332	91.7
TOPSweeper	144	19%	.409	86.9
Splitter	153	22%	.291	84.9
Slider	337	27%	.411	92.5
Four-Seam	903	16%	.417	94.0

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.9

Our model36% UNDER+1.9% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2

Plate Appearancesavg 4.2

Hitsavg 0.9

Singlesavg 0.7

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 1.5

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 0.8

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	6%	—	+425	+0.9	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	PASS	36%	+1.9%	+198	+0.8	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	UNDER	PASS	77%	-0.3%	-350	-2.2	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	24%	+7.0%	+475	-12.6	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	16%	—	+180	-1.3	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	S	14%	—	+550	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	42%	—	+111	-0.9	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	A	8%	—	+550	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	S	34%	—	+138	+0.2	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=2,437 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	526-2191	.240	.402	.162	97	4	83	246	22.0%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	154-653	.236	.401	.165	34	1	24	71	21.7%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	372-1538	.242	.402	.160	63	3	59	175	22.0%
Last 15 days recent form	9-47	.191	.340	.149	1	0	2	3	19.1%
vs LAA tonight's opponent (full roster)	7-30	.233	.367	.133	4	0	0	2	10.0%
@ Angel Stadium tonight's stadium	36-162	.222	.222	.000	0	0	0	0	11.1%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.330

wOBA0.318

delta−0.012 due

n=619 PA

Spray chart

829 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play829

HR rate5.1%

Hard-hit (95+)44%

Avg exit velo90.0 mph

Ground ball43%

Line drive22%

Fly ball28%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+3.6%small sample

n=331 games · 20/147 HR when active

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+0.0%small sample

n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+0.0%small sample

n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21

// TONIGHT

0 / 0HELPING · IN PLAY

No DNA factors in play tonight

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Rested (2+ days off)

−29%

21 yes / 312 no · 44 HRs

Playing at home

−27%

168 yes / 166 no · 44 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+23%

139 yes / 195 no · 44 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

−22%

44 yes / 290 no · 44 HRs

// 8 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

+20%

127 yes / 207 no · 44 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+9%

235 yes / 98 no · 44 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

+6%

101 yes / 233 no · 44 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

neutral

147 yes / 184 no · 44 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	4	2	0	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-18	4	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 RBI
2026-09-17	5	1	0	0	1	1-for-5 · 1 K
2026-09-16	5	1	0	0	1	1-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-09-15	4	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-09-14	4	2	1	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 K
2026-09-12	4	0	0	1	3	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 3 K
2026-09-11	4	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-09	4	2	1	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-09-08	4	0	0	0	0	0-for-4 · 1 RBI

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Josh Bell across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.