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Mookie Betts
SS · RHB · RHP · LAD
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Mookie Betts, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 7-9 | 44% | +18.8% |
| A | 8-9 | 47% | +30.1% |
| B | 6-12 | 33% | -7.7% |
Combined 21-30 · n=51 · ROI +13.2% · avg CLV -0.3 pts · beat close 36%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.5Plate Appearancesavg 4.5
Hitsavg 1.5
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.5
Total Basesavg 2.9
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 0.4
Walksavg 0.7
Splits
Career n=549 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-27
xStats luck
xwOBA0.332
wOBA0.329
delta−0.003 due
n=549 PA
Spray chart
1029 balls in play since 2025Balls in play1029
HR rate4.3%
Hard-hit (95+)36%
Avg exit velo89.5 mph
Ground ball33%
Line drive27%
Fly ball34%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-35.2%significant
n=479 games · 51/367 HR when active
+40.5%significant
n=480 games · 20/90 HR when active
-26.2%significant
n=479 games · 7/65 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-29
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+48%
369 yes / 112 no · 77 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+45%
108 yes / 228 no · 54 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+41%
90 yes / 390 no · 77 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
0.61× HR rate
27 yes / 454 no · 77 HRs
Playing at home
+36%
247 yes / 235 no · 77 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
0.64× HR rate
42 yes / 438 no · 77 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
0.65× HR rate
367 yes / 112 no · 77 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+34%
105 yes / 374 no · 77 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+32%
200 yes / 280 no · 77 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−27%
100 yes / 355 no · 76 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−26%
65 yes / 414 no · 77 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−26%
65 yes / 417 no · 77 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+24%
96 yes / 383 no · 77 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+22%
187 yes / 290 no · 76 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−21%
46 yes / 359 no · 63 HRs
// 13 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−20%
144 yes / 338 no · 77 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−17%
63 yes / 417 no · 77 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−14%
19 yes / 463 no · 77 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
−13%
4 yes / 478 no · 77 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−12%
107 yes / 375 no · 77 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−10%
196 yes / 280 no · 76 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+9%
72 yes / 381 no · 74 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−7%
2 yes / 453 no · 76 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−5%
246 yes / 213 no · 73 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
neutral
328 yes / 154 no · 77 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
222 yes / 260 no · 77 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 479 no · 77 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Mookie Betts across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.