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Mookie Betts
SS · RHB · RHP · LAD
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Mookie Betts, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 6-7 | 46% | -1.3% |
| A | 5-6 | 45% | +103.6% |
| B | 3-4 | 43% | -13.0% |
Combined 14-17 · n=31 · ROI +33.3% · avg CLV -0.7 pts · beat close 29%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.8Plate Appearancesavg 3.8
Hitsavg 0.9
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.0
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.3
Walksavg 0.0
Splits
Career n=2,407 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-08-03
xStats luck
xwOBA0.341
wOBA0.328
delta−0.013 due
n=343 PA
Spray chart
870 balls in play since 2025Balls in play870
HR rate3.9%
Hard-hit (95+)36%
Avg exit velo89.5 mph
Ground ball32%
Line drive26%
Fly ball35%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-34.6%significant
n=430 games · 45/329 HR when active
-22.8%significant
n=434 games · 6/55 HR when active
+28.4%significant
n=432 games · 36/198 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
0.53× HR rate
63 yes / 344 no · 67 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+47%
329 yes / 104 no · 68 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
0.61× HR rate
27 yes / 406 no · 68 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
0.61× HR rate
36 yes / 396 no · 68 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+39%
93 yes / 205 no · 47 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
0.65× HR rate
329 yes / 101 no · 68 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−33%
121 yes / 313 no · 68 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+32%
296 yes / 138 no · 68 HRs
Playing at home
+30%
223 yes / 211 no · 68 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+28%
198 yes / 234 no · 68 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+28%
163 yes / 266 no · 67 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+26%
92 yes / 339 no · 68 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+24%
93 yes / 338 no · 68 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−23%
55 yes / 379 no · 68 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−21%
15 yes / 419 no · 68 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−20%
45 yes / 326 no · 58 HRs
// 12 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−17%
57 yes / 375 no · 68 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−17%
173 yes / 256 no · 68 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−15%
77 yes / 357 no · 68 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+13%
65 yes / 338 no · 65 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+11%
98 yes / 334 no · 68 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
−10%
3 yes / 431 no · 68 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−7%
56 yes / 374 no · 68 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−7%
2 yes / 405 no · 67 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+6%
197 yes / 237 no · 68 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
230 yes / 189 no · 67 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 430 no · 68 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Mookie Betts across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.