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Mookie Betts
SS · RHB · RHP · LAD
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+4.9% edgemodel 20% · grade B
Why: NOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph: -35.4% lift over 300 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (41% usage, .385 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Mookie Betts, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 3-4 | 43% | +10.6% |
| A | 1-2 | 33% | -51.0% |
| B | 2-2 | 50% | -24.8% |
Combined 6-8 · n=14 · ROI -12.7% · avg CLV +0.1 pts · beat close 33%
Matchup
Mookie Betts (RHB) vs Zebby Matthews RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Zebby Matthews's arsenal × how Mookie Betts hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 1.3
Singlesavg 0.9
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 2.1
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=2,267 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-06-20
xStats luck
xwOBA0.326
wOBA0.311
delta−0.015 due
n=203 PA
Spray chart
752 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph cross-windBalls in play752
HR rate3.9%
Hard-hit (95+)34%
Avg exit velo88.8 mph
Ground ball32%
Line drive27%
Fly ball35%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-35.4%significant
n=341 games · 3/41 HR when active
-31.3%significant
n=392 games · 37/270 HR when active
+24.3%significant
n=394 games · 34/188 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16
// TONIGHT
4 / 6FAVORABLE
Mixed, leaning favorable
// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT
- +62% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
- -38% HR rate when rested (2+ days off).
- -35% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
1.61× HR rate
300 yes / 95 no · 63 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+50%
80 yes / 185 no · 43 HRs
Playing at home
+47%
202 yes / 194 no · 63 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
0.62× HR rate
26 yes / 369 no · 63 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
0.62× HR rate
42 yes / 327 no · 62 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
0.65× HR rate
41 yes / 300 no · 54 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+35%
273 yes / 123 no · 63 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
0.66× HR rate
121 yes / 275 no · 63 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−33%
31 yes / 363 no · 63 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+32%
146 yes / 245 no · 62 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−31%
270 yes / 122 no · 63 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+24%
188 yes / 206 no · 63 HRs
// 16 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−19%
51 yes / 343 no · 63 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−19%
50 yes / 342 no · 63 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−18%
177 yes / 213 no · 63 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−18%
50 yes / 346 no · 63 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+17%
56 yes / 312 no · 60 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−16%
41 yes / 355 no · 63 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−13%
11 yes / 385 no · 63 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+10%
91 yes / 302 no · 63 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+10%
159 yes / 237 no · 63 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+7%
88 yes / 306 no · 63 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−7%
2 yes / 367 no · 62 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 395 no · 63 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
206 yes / 180 no · 63 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
87 yes / 306 no · 63 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 392 no · 63 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Mookie Betts across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.