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Ketel Marte
2B · SHB · RHP · ARI
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Ketel Marte, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 7-7 | 50% | +22.4% |
| A | 4-2 | 67% | +32.5% |
| B | 2-11 | 15% | -67.3% |
Combined 13-20 · n=33 · ROI -11.1% · avg CLV -0.4 pts · beat close 31%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.6Plate Appearancesavg 4.6
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.5
Total Basesavg 1.5
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.5
Walksavg 0.2
Splits
Career n=606 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-09-19
xStats luck
xwOBA0.345
wOBA0.330
delta−0.015 due
n=604 PA
Spray chart
875 balls in play since 2025Balls in play875
HR rate5.5%
Hard-hit (95+)43%
Avg exit velo89.7 mph
Ground ball41%
Line drive23%
Fly ball28%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+37.1%significant
n=452 games · 61/343 HR when active
-21.6%significant
n=389 games · 8/64 HR when active
-20.1%small sample
n=453 games · 0/7 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
0.59× HR rate
38 yes / 412 no · 74 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+37%
343 yes / 109 no · 74 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
0.66× HR rate
23 yes / 429 no · 74 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+25%
100 yes / 353 no · 74 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−22%
64 yes / 325 no · 66 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+21%
208 yes / 245 no · 74 HRs
// 22 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−20%
7 yes / 446 no · 74 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+19%
65 yes / 385 no · 74 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+18%
211 yes / 242 no · 74 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+17%
206 yes / 240 no · 73 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−16%
65 yes / 357 no · 72 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−15%
67 yes / 385 no · 74 HRs
Playing at home
−14%
234 yes / 219 no · 74 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+13%
336 yes / 116 no · 74 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−12%
123 yes / 330 no · 74 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−11%
215 yes / 233 no · 74 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−9%
62 yes / 391 no · 74 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+8%
185 yes / 262 no · 71 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+8%
108 yes / 345 no · 74 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+6%
337 yes / 116 no · 74 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
neutral
27 yes / 426 no · 74 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
227 yes / 213 no · 72 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
101 yes / 352 no · 74 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
6 yes / 440 no · 73 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 453 no · 74 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 452 no · 74 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Ketel Marte across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.