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Ketel Marte
2B · SHB · RHP · ARI
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Ketel Marte, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 4-0 | 100% | +138.2% |
| A | 2-3 | 40% | -43.5% |
| B | 4-5 | 44% | +17.2% |
Combined 10-8 · n=18 · ROI +27.2% · avg CLV -1.1 pts · beat close 11%
Matchup
Ketel Marte (SHB) vs Casey Mize RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherHit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.6Plate Appearancesavg 4.6
Hitsavg 0.6
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.1
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=2,407 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-08-03
xStats luck
xwOBA0.352
wOBA0.331
delta−0.021 due
n=489 PA
Spray chart
794 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph cross-windBalls in play794
HR rate5.7%
Hard-hit (95+)44%
Avg exit velo89.7 mph
Ground ball42%
Line drive23%
Fly ball27%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+50.3%significant
n=430 games · 58/313 HR when active
-29.4%significant
n=430 games · 6/59 HR when active
-28.1%significant
n=369 games · 7/62 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
1 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Mixed signals tonight
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +50% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
- −28% HR rate when opposing starter's recent fb velo down ≥1 mph.
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight
1.50× HR rate
313 yes / 117 no · 71 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
0.58× HR rate
38 yes / 390 no · 71 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−32%
21 yes / 409 no · 71 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−29%
59 yes / 371 no · 71 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mphtonight
−28%
62 yes / 307 no · 64 HRs
// 23 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+19%
185 yes / 239 no · 70 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+18%
65 yes / 363 no · 71 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−18%
6 yes / 425 no · 71 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+17%
199 yes / 232 no · 71 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−15%
12 yes / 419 no · 71 HRs
Playing at home
−15%
220 yes / 211 no · 71 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+14%
97 yes / 334 no · 71 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+13%
322 yes / 109 no · 71 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−12%
61 yes / 339 no · 69 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−12%
207 yes / 219 no · 71 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−9%
113 yes / 318 no · 71 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+7%
320 yes / 110 no · 71 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
neutral
58 yes / 373 no · 71 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
176 yes / 249 no · 68 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
217 yes / 203 no · 70 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
101 yes / 330 no · 71 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
203 yes / 228 no · 71 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
6 yes / 418 no · 70 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
91 yes / 340 no · 71 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 430 no · 71 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 431 no · 71 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Ketel Marte across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.