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Ketel Marte
2B · SHB · RHP · ARI
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Ketel Marte, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 7-7 | 50% | +22.4% |
| A | 4-2 | 67% | +32.5% |
| B | 2-11 | 15% | -67.3% |
Combined 13-20 · n=33 · ROI -11.1% · avg CLV -0.4 pts · beat close 31%
Matchup
Ketel Marte (SHB) vs Mason Adams favors batterfavors pitcherHit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.6Plate Appearancesavg 4.6
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.5
Total Basesavg 1.5
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.5
Walksavg 0.2
Tonight's lines
2026-09-23 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=2,526 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-20
xStats luck
xwOBA0.345
wOBA0.329
delta−0.016 due
n=608 PA
Spray chart
879 balls in play since 2025· wind 1 mph blowing inBalls in play879
HR rate5.5%
Hard-hit (95+)43%
Avg exit velo89.8 mph
Ground ball41%
Line drive23%
Fly ball28%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+29.9%significant
n=458 games · 60/346 HR when active
-21.0%significant
n=393 games · 8/64 HR when active
+26.3%significant
n=459 games · 20/100 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-22
// TONIGHT
3 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +30% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
- +26% HR rate when vs hr-prone pitcher (hr/pa > 3.8%).
- +20% HR rate when hr-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
0.59× HR rate
38 yes / 418 no · 74 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
0.66× HR rate
23 yes / 435 no · 74 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight
+30%
346 yes / 112 no · 74 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)tonight
+26%
100 yes / 359 no · 74 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+21%
211 yes / 248 no · 74 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−21%
64 yes / 329 no · 66 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)tonight
+20%
65 yes / 391 no · 74 HRs
// 21 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−20%
7 yes / 452 no · 74 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+17%
209 yes / 250 no · 74 HRs
Playing at home
−16%
240 yes / 219 no · 74 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−15%
129 yes / 330 no · 74 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−15%
65 yes / 363 no · 72 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+14%
212 yes / 240 no · 73 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+12%
341 yes / 117 no · 74 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−12%
65 yes / 393 no · 74 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−10%
216 yes / 238 no · 74 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−9%
63 yes / 396 no · 74 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+6%
341 yes / 118 no · 74 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
107 yes / 352 no · 74 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
186 yes / 267 no · 71 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
neutral
27 yes / 432 no · 74 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
103 yes / 356 no · 74 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
232 yes / 214 no · 72 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
6 yes / 446 no · 73 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 459 no · 74 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 458 no · 74 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Ketel Marte across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.