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Brandon Nimmo
RF · LHB · RHP · TEX
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Brandon Nimmo, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 7-2 | 78% | +65.5% |
| A | 6-6 | 50% | +74.8% |
| B | 8-5 | 62% | +27.4% |
Combined 21-13 · n=34 · ROI +54.2% · avg CLV -1.0 pts · beat close 37%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1Plate Appearancesavg 4.1
Hitsavg 1.2
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.4
Total Basesavg 2.2
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.9
Walksavg 0.5
Splits
Career n=477 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.349
wOBA0.333
delta−0.016 due
n=477 PA
Spray chart
802 balls in play since 2025Balls in play802
HR rate4.7%
Hard-hit (95+)49%
Avg exit velo91.7 mph
Ground ball43%
Line drive26%
Fly ball26%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+60.8%significant
n=423 games · 18/95 HR when active
-29.4%significant
n=398 games · 5/65 HR when active
+21.3%significant
n=422 games · 14/93 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-07-14
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
1.61× HR rate
95 yes / 328 no · 53 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
1.57× HR rate
168 yes / 251 no · 51 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+43%
206 yes / 220 no · 53 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
0.65× HR rate
111 yes / 315 no · 53 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−31%
227 yes / 194 no · 53 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−29%
65 yes / 333 no · 48 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+25%
182 yes / 244 no · 53 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−24%
289 yes / 137 no · 53 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+21%
93 yes / 329 no · 53 HRs
// 19 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−25%
9 yes / 407 no · 52 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+19%
80 yes / 341 no · 53 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−15%
5 yes / 421 no · 53 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+14%
201 yes / 86 no · 34 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+12%
52 yes / 307 no · 42 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−12%
57 yes / 369 no · 53 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+11%
195 yes / 228 no · 53 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+10%
49 yes / 372 no · 53 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−8%
235 yes / 174 no · 49 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−8%
336 yes / 89 no · 53 HRs
Playing at home
+6%
218 yes / 208 no · 53 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+5%
139 yes / 287 no · 53 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
291 yes / 130 no · 53 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
18 yes / 407 no · 53 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
124 yes / 302 no · 53 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
78 yes / 338 no · 52 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 426 no · 53 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 421 no · 53 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Brandon Nimmo across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.