Brandon Nimmo

RF · LHB · RHP · TEX

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

MIA

Starter

Tyler Phillips (RHP)

Stadium

loanDepot park

Model HR%

14.0%

Model Hits%

70.8%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 1.5+2.5% edgemodel 28% · grade PASS

Why: Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260): +58.6% lift over 89 games · strong vs the Sinker (30% usage, .421 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 1.5	28%	+2.5%	50%	LEAN
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	14%	+2.3%	0%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Brandon Nimmo, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	0-1	0%	-100.0%
A	0-2	0%	-100.0%
B	0-4	0%	-100.0%

Combined 0-7 · n=7 · ROI -100.0% · avg CLV -2.5 pts · beat close 17%

Matchup

Brandon Nimmo (LHB) vs Tyler Phillips RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Tyler Phillips RHP · season · 55.1 IP · 237 BF

BAA

.221

wOBA

.317

SLG

.356

ISO

.135

WHIP

1.36

HR/9

0.82

BB%

12.2%

20.3%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

4.2%

HH%

38.5%

FB%

33.3%

HR/FB%

15.6%

Brandon Nimmo hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	547-2183	.251	.422	.172	82	11.4%	24.6%
vs RHP	373-1519	.246	.434	.189	66	12.2%	24.8%

Pitch-type matchup

Tyler Phillips's arsenal × how Brandon Nimmo hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Tyler Phillips throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPSinker	30%	95.6	9%	.293
TOPSweeper	23%	84.5	43%	.311
Curveball	21%	84.0	41%	.386
TOPSplitter	17%	87.4	34%	.247
Four-Seam	8%	95.2	8%	.420
Cutter	0%	90.4	0%	—

Brandon Nimmo vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPSinker	522	11%	.421	92.5
TOPSweeper	208	22%	.465	92.7
Curveball	307	22%	.319	89.6
TOPSplitter	100	31%	.352	91.7
Four-Seam	1312	19%	.399	92.7
Cutter	291	18%	.341	91.6

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 1.2

Our model71% OVER-4.3% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0

Plate Appearancesavg 4.0

Hitsavg 1.2

Singlesavg 0.5

Doublesavg 0.7

Total Basesavg 1.9

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.8

Walksavg 0.0

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	9%	—	+400	+0.0	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	OVER	PASS	71%	-4.3%	-300	+0.0	Sign in
BEST1.5	OVER	PASS	28%	+2.5%	+260	+0.0	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	6%	-5.3%	+800	-0.7	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	14%	+2.3%	+757	-0.9	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	S	10%	—	+175	-2.1	—
1.5	—	B	7%	—	+500	+2.4	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	53%	—	-110	-6.0	—
1.5	—	PASS	14%	—	+550	-1.3	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	PASS	43%	—	+129	-0.8	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=2,463 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-06-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	547-2183	.251	.422	.172	105	12	82	280	24.6%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	174-664	.262	.395	.133	36	2	16	68	24.1%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	373-1519	.246	.434	.189	69	10	66	212	24.8%
Last 15 days recent form	16-49	.327	.490	.163	8	0	0	1	18.4%
vs MIA tonight's opponent (full roster)	13-48	.271	.646	.375	4	1	4	8	20.8%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.334

wOBA0.324

delta−0.010 due

n=338 PA

Spray chart

709 balls in play since 2025· wind 9 mph cross-wind

Balls in play709

HR rate4.8%

Hard-hit (95+)49%

Avg exit velo91.7 mph

Ground ball43%

Line drive24%

Fly ball27%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+58.6%significant

n=402 games · 17/89 HR when active

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

-28.4%significant

n=376 games · 5/63 HR when active

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+29.7%significant

n=402 games · 26/175 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16

// TONIGHT

6 / 9FAVORABLE

Mixed, leaning favorable

// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT

+59% HR rate when vs short-leash starter (avg ip < 5.0).
+36% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).
-33% HR rate when hr-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10).

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

1.59× HR rate

166 yes / 231 no · 49 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

1.59× HR rate

89 yes / 313 no · 51 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

+36%

203 yes / 202 no · 51 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

−33%

97 yes / 308 no · 51 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−30%

214 yes / 186 no · 51 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+30%

175 yes / 227 no · 51 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+29%

161 yes / 244 no · 51 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−28%

63 yes / 313 no · 46 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+28%

87 yes / 314 no · 51 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+25%

186 yes / 83 no · 32 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

−25%

277 yes / 128 no · 51 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+20%

78 yes / 322 no · 51 HRs

// 16 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−25%

9 yes / 386 no · 50 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+20%

43 yes / 357 no · 51 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−19%

53 yes / 352 no · 51 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+17%

49 yes / 292 no · 40 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+17%

258 yes / 142 no · 51 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−13%

4 yes / 401 no · 51 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

−10%

318 yes / 86 no · 51 HRs

Playing at home

+9%

204 yes / 201 no · 51 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

−9%

226 yes / 163 no · 47 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+9%

118 yes / 287 no · 51 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

neutral

124 yes / 281 no · 51 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

neutral

61 yes / 334 no · 50 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

neutral

17 yes / 387 no · 51 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 400 no · 51 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 405 no · 51 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	4	1	0	0	1-for-4
2026-06-20	5	2	0	2	2-for-5 · 2 K
2026-06-19	5	2	2	1	2-for-5 · 2 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-06-18	5	1	0	0	1-for-5
2026-06-16	3	2	1	0	2-for-3 · 1 2B
2026-06-15	4	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-06-14	5	2	2	0	2-for-5 · 2 2B · 2 RBI
2026-06-13	1	0	0	0	0-for-1
2026-06-12	4	0	0	3	0-for-4 · 3 K
2026-06-11	4	2	2	0	2-for-4 · 2 2B · 1 RBI

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Brandon Nimmo across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.