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Brandon Nimmo
RF · LHB · RHP · TEX
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Brandon Nimmo, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 14-4 | 78% | +48.4% |
| A | 3-5 | 38% | -27.9% |
| B | 9-5 | 64% | +13.7% |
Combined 26-14 · n=40 · ROI +21.0% · avg CLV -1.4 pts · beat close 14%
Matchup
Brandon Nimmo (LHB) vs Nolan McLean RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Nolan McLean's arsenal × how Brandon Nimmo hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2Plate Appearancesavg 4.2
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 1.3
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 1.5
Walksavg 0.4
Tonight's lines
2026-09-24 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=2,776 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-19
xStats luck
xwOBA0.335
wOBA0.320
delta−0.015 due
n=651 PA
Spray chart
921 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph cross-windBalls in play921
HR rate4.5%
Hard-hit (95+)49%
Avg exit velo91.7 mph
Ground ball44%
Line drive25%
Fly ball26%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+56.3%significant
n=472 games · 19/105 HR when active
+45.8%significant
n=471 games · 17/98 HR when active
+34.4%significant
n=472 games · 28/189 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-08
// TONIGHT
0 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning against
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −27% HR rate when hr-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
1.56× HR rate
105 yes / 367 no · 58 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
1.55× HR rate
192 yes / 274 no · 56 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+46%
98 yes / 373 no · 58 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+40%
209 yes / 265 no · 58 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+34%
189 yes / 283 no · 58 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−33%
247 yes / 222 no · 58 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+32%
86 yes / 384 no · 58 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−30%
323 yes / 151 no · 58 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)tonight
−27%
140 yes / 334 no · 58 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−25%
72 yes / 375 no · 53 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+25%
224 yes / 250 no · 58 HRs
// 17 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−25%
9 yes / 455 no · 57 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−18%
6 yes / 468 no · 58 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−17%
62 yes / 412 no · 58 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+13%
54 yes / 338 no · 44 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+12%
64 yes / 406 no · 58 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−11%
258 yes / 195 no · 54 HRs
Playing at home
+7%
244 yes / 230 no · 58 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−6%
130 yes / 344 no · 58 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−6%
19 yes / 454 no · 58 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+6%
223 yes / 101 no · 37 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−6%
120 yes / 344 no · 57 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
379 yes / 94 no · 58 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
336 yes / 134 no · 58 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
neutral
184 yes / 290 no · 58 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 474 no · 58 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 470 no · 58 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Brandon Nimmo across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.