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Dansby Swanson
SS · RHB · RHP · CHC
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+9.2% edgemodel 63% · grade S
Why: Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%): +36.4% lift over 249 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (55% usage, .486 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Dansby Swanson, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 10-7 | 59% | +118.5% |
| A | 1-7 | 13% | -78.4% |
| B | 2-7 | 22% | -49.1% |
Combined 13-21 · n=34 · ROI +27.8% · avg CLV +0.3 pts · beat close 61%
Matchup
Dansby Swanson (RHB) vs Gerrit Cole RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Gerrit Cole's arsenal × how Dansby Swanson hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.8Plate Appearancesavg 3.8
Hitsavg 0.8
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 0.9
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 1.0
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=428 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-07-31
xStats luck
xwOBA0.306
wOBA0.299
delta−0.007 due
n=426 PA
Spray chart
724 balls in play since 2025Balls in play724
HR rate5.5%
Hard-hit (95+)42%
Avg exit velo88.6 mph
Ground ball42%
Line drive23%
Fly ball29%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+36.4%significant
n=432 games · 37/249 HR when active
+27.9%significant
n=445 games · 15/91 HR when active
-21.3%significant
n=426 games · 7/70 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-07-28
// TONIGHT
1 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Mixed signals tonight
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +36% HR rate when vs fastball-heavy pitcher (fb% ≥ 55%).
- −21% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)tonight
+36%
249 yes / 183 no · 56 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+33%
60 yes / 387 no · 59 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+28%
91 yes / 354 no · 58 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+27%
90 yes / 216 no · 39 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−21%
70 yes / 356 no · 57 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight
−21%
198 yes / 248 no · 58 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−20%
192 yes / 250 no · 59 HRs
// 21 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+17%
71 yes / 358 no · 56 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+16%
50 yes / 397 no · 59 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+16%
157 yes / 290 no · 59 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+14%
190 yes / 252 no · 58 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+13%
67 yes / 378 no · 58 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−12%
135 yes / 312 no · 59 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+11%
53 yes / 394 no · 59 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+11%
184 yes / 263 no · 59 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+11%
112 yes / 333 no · 58 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−11%
37 yes / 392 no · 56 HRs
Playing at home
+9%
231 yes / 216 no · 59 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−6%
167 yes / 280 no · 59 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
320 yes / 125 no · 58 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
17 yes / 429 no · 59 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
111 yes / 335 no · 58 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
9 yes / 438 no · 59 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 444 no · 58 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
63 yes / 330 no · 54 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
349 yes / 97 no · 59 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 447 no · 59 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Dansby Swanson across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.