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Dansby Swanson
SS · RHB · RHP · CHC
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Pitch-type matchup
Kodai Senga's arsenal × how Dansby Swanson hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Splits
Career n=2,249 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-06-20
xStats luck
xwOBA0.306
wOBA0.286
delta−0.020 due
n=301 PA
Spray chart
633 balls in play since 2025Balls in play633
HR rate5.1%
Hard-hit (95+)41%
Avg exit velo88.2 mph
Ground ball42%
Line drive23%
Fly ball29%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+24.9%significant
n=339 games · 30/205 HR when active
+20.9%significant
n=352 games · 6/34 HR when active
+9.9%small sample
n=351 games · 13/91 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-26
// TONIGHT
2 / 4FAVORABLE
Mixed, leaning favorable
// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT
- -34% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
- +25% HR rate when vs fastball-heavy pitcher (fb% ≥ 55%).
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+39%
45 yes / 307 no · 47 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−34%
110 yes / 242 no · 47 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+25%
205 yes / 134 no · 45 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+21%
34 yes / 318 no · 47 HRs
// 24 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+18%
172 yes / 176 no · 46 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+18%
141 yes / 211 no · 47 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+17%
156 yes / 196 no · 47 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−16%
14 yes / 337 no · 47 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+10%
91 yes / 260 no · 46 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−10%
270 yes / 81 no · 47 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−8%
59 yes / 290 no · 46 HRs
Playing at home
+8%
187 yes / 165 no · 47 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−7%
2 yes / 350 no · 47 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+6%
154 yes / 197 no · 46 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
47 yes / 257 no · 43 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
73 yes / 277 no · 46 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
36 yes / 316 no · 47 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
99 yes / 251 no · 46 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
4 yes / 2 no · 0 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 349 no · 46 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 352 no · 47 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Dansby Swanson across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.