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Matt Olson
1B · LHB · RHP · ATL
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Matt Olson, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 16-3 | 84% | +91.9% |
| A | 13-8 | 62% | +40.1% |
| B | 10-9 | 53% | +14.0% |
Combined 39-20 · n=59 · ROI +48.4% · avg CLV -1.6 pts · beat close 30%
Matchup
Matt Olson (LHB) vs Peter Lambert RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Peter Lambert's arsenal × how Matt Olson hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1Plate Appearancesavg 4.1
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.6
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-09-18 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=683 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-09-16
xStats luck
xwOBA0.343
wOBA0.352
delta+0.009 hot
n=681 PA
Spray chart
910 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph cross-windBalls in play910
HR rate7.7%
Hard-hit (95+)52%
Avg exit velo92.7 mph
Ground ball38%
Line drive23%
Fly ball32%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-36.7%significant
n=518 games · 8/67 HR when active
+43.8%significant
n=520 games · 31/97 HR when active
+29.0%significant
n=520 games · 58/219 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
// TONIGHT
1 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +25% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+44%
97 yes / 423 no · 118 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
0.63× HR rate
67 yes / 451 no · 117 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+29%
219 yes / 301 no · 118 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+28%
117 yes / 403 no · 118 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight
+25%
148 yes / 372 no · 118 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+23%
97 yes / 422 no · 118 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+22%
364 yes / 156 no · 118 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+20%
302 yes / 199 no · 112 HRs
// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+18%
77 yes / 443 no · 118 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−17%
238 yes / 282 no · 118 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−17%
16 yes / 503 no · 118 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−16%
86 yes / 410 no · 112 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−16%
359 yes / 159 no · 117 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−15%
192 yes / 314 no · 113 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+14%
276 yes / 110 no · 87 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−10%
420 yes / 99 no · 118 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+10%
85 yes / 370 no · 102 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+10%
194 yes / 321 no · 117 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+9%
14 yes / 489 no · 114 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
+8%
2 yes / 518 no · 118 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+8%
320 yes / 200 no · 118 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−5%
134 yes / 369 no · 114 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
71 yes / 446 no · 118 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
19 yes / 501 no · 118 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
273 yes / 247 no · 118 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
69 yes / 448 no · 118 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 518 no · 117 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Matt Olson across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.