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Matt Olson
1B · LHB · RHP · ATL
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Matt Olson, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 8-2 | 80% | +83.2% |
| A | 7-4 | 64% | +27.5% |
| B | 6-4 | 60% | +60.4% |
Combined 21-10 · n=31 · ROI +56.1% · avg CLV -1.3 pts · beat close 26%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 2.7
Home Runsavg 0.5
Strikeoutsavg 1.4
Walksavg 0.4
Splits
Career n=508 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-08-01
xStats luck
xwOBA0.346
wOBA0.380
delta+0.034 hot
n=506 PA
Spray chart
795 balls in play since 2025Balls in play795
HR rate7.7%
Hard-hit (95+)52%
Avg exit velo92.9 mph
Ground ball38%
Line drive22%
Fly ball31%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-27.9%significant
n=480 games · 9/62 HR when active
+33.1%significant
n=481 games · 29/97 HR when active
+25.4%significant
n=481 games · 27/95 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+33%
97 yes / 384 no · 110 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+29%
136 yes / 346 no · 110 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−28%
62 yes / 418 no · 109 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+25%
95 yes / 386 no · 110 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+24%
69 yes / 413 no · 110 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+23%
326 yes / 156 no · 110 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+22%
279 yes / 186 no · 104 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+21%
215 yes / 266 no · 110 HRs
// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−19%
212 yes / 270 no · 110 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−18%
181 yes / 287 no · 105 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−17%
319 yes / 161 no · 109 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−17%
16 yes / 465 no · 110 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+14%
82 yes / 342 no · 95 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−13%
386 yes / 95 no · 110 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+13%
101 yes / 380 no · 110 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−11%
80 yes / 375 no · 104 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+11%
248 yes / 102 no · 79 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+10%
180 yes / 297 no · 109 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+9%
14 yes / 451 no · 106 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+7%
293 yes / 189 no · 110 HRs
Playing at home
−7%
251 yes / 231 no · 110 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−6%
116 yes / 349 no · 106 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+6%
61 yes / 418 no · 110 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
14 yes / 468 no · 110 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
69 yes / 410 no · 110 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 480 no · 109 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 482 no · 110 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Matt Olson across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.