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Matt Olson
1B · LHB · RHP · ATL
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Matt Olson, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 2-0 | 100% | +53.1% |
| A | 1-0 | 100% | +46.9% |
| B | 2-1 | 67% | -8.8% |
Combined 5-1 · n=6 · ROI +21.1% · avg CLV -0.5 pts · beat close 20%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4Plate Appearancesavg 4.4
Hitsavg 1.3
Singlesavg 1.0
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 2.2
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 1.1
Walksavg 0.3
Splits
Career n=2,555 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-06-17
xStats luck
xwOBA0.347
wOBA0.377
delta+0.030 hot
n=340 PA
Spray chart
698 balls in play since 2025Balls in play698
HR rate7.4%
Hard-hit (95+)53%
Avg exit velo93.6 mph
Ground ball38%
Line drive23%
Fly ball31%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+39.1%significant
n=439 games · 29/93 HR when active
+30.4%significant
n=439 games · 55/206 HR when active
-22.8%significant
n=435 games · 9/56 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+39%
93 yes / 346 no · 101 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+30%
206 yes / 233 no · 101 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+29%
136 yes / 304 no · 101 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+26%
102 yes / 337 no · 101 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+25%
284 yes / 156 no · 101 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−23%
56 yes / 379 no · 100 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+21%
73 yes / 313 no · 87 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−20%
170 yes / 270 no · 101 HRs
// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
−24%
14 yes / 425 no · 101 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−18%
174 yes / 252 no · 96 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+15%
95 yes / 344 no · 101 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+14%
171 yes / 264 no · 100 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+13%
258 yes / 166 no · 95 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+13%
222 yes / 90 no · 70 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−12%
351 yes / 88 no · 101 HRs
Playing at home
−10%
227 yes / 213 no · 101 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−10%
265 yes / 170 no · 100 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+9%
63 yes / 377 no · 101 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+9%
14 yes / 410 no · 97 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−8%
12 yes / 428 no · 101 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−8%
95 yes / 329 no · 97 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+7%
266 yes / 174 no · 101 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+5%
61 yes / 377 no · 101 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
63 yes / 375 no · 101 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
71 yes / 342 no · 95 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 440 no · 101 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 435 no · 100 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Matt Olson across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.