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Pete Alonso
1B · RHB · RHP · BAL
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits UNDER 0.5+9.6% edgemodel 42% · grade S
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Pete Alonso, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 11-6 | 65% | +81.5% |
| A | 7-4 | 64% | +15.9% |
| B | 2-8 | 20% | -50.8% |
Combined 20-18 · n=38 · ROI +27.7% · avg CLV -1.2 pts · beat close 36%
Matchup
Pete Alonso (RHB) vs Robert Stock favors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Robert Stock's arsenal × how Pete Alonso hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.6Plate Appearancesavg 4.6
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.9
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 1.1
Walksavg 0.8
Tonight's lines
2026-09-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=679 PA · 2026-03-17 → 2026-09-14
xStats luck
xwOBA0.387
wOBA0.373
delta−0.014 due
n=679 PA
Spray chart
916 balls in play since 2025Balls in play916
HR rate8.2%
Hard-hit (95+)55%
Avg exit velo93.5 mph
Ground ball40%
Line drive24%
Fly ball30%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+50.7%significant
n=502 games · 24/68 HR when active
+44.4%significant
n=502 games · 90/355 HR when active
+26.9%significant
n=506 games · 29/103 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
1.64× HR rate
199 yes / 301 no · 112 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
1.51× HR rate
68 yes / 434 no · 114 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+44%
355 yes / 147 no · 114 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+27%
103 yes / 403 no · 114 HRs
// 24 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
+19%
3 yes / 507 no · 115 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+19%
89 yes / 413 no · 114 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−16%
412 yes / 97 no · 115 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−15%
119 yes / 232 no · 81 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−14%
459 yes / 51 no · 115 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+14%
59 yes / 366 no · 93 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+13%
65 yes / 445 no · 115 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+13%
214 yes / 293 no · 114 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−13%
290 yes / 220 no · 115 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−11%
100 yes / 391 no · 111 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−11%
67 yes / 441 no · 114 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+11%
93 yes / 390 no · 108 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−9%
314 yes / 191 no · 114 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+9%
10 yes / 481 no · 111 HRs
Playing at home
+7%
257 yes / 253 no · 115 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
229 yes / 281 no · 115 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
109 yes / 398 no · 114 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
17 yes / 492 no · 115 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
221 yes / 287 no · 114 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
274 yes / 215 no · 110 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
143 yes / 367 no · 115 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
9 yes / 501 no · 115 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 502 no · 114 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Pete Alonso across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.