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Pete Alonso
1B · RHB · RHP · BAL
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+4.7% edgemodel 20% · grade B
Why: Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%): +56.4% lift over 57 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (40% usage, .571 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Pete Alonso, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 3-4 | 43% | -11.3% |
| A | 4-6 | 40% | -40.0% |
| B | 4-3 | 57% | +80.3% |
Combined 11-13 · n=24 · ROI +3.5% · avg CLV -0.2 pts · beat close 50%
Matchup
Pete Alonso (RHB) vs Zack Wheeler RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Zack Wheeler's arsenal × how Pete Alonso hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.6Plate Appearancesavg 4.6
Hitsavg 1.2
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.4
Total Basesavg 2.2
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.9
Walksavg 0.2
Tonight's lines
2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=2,696 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-07-31
xStats luck
xwOBA0.367
wOBA0.360
delta−0.007 due
n=503 PA
Spray chart
806 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph cross-windBalls in play806
HR rate7.8%
Hard-hit (95+)54%
Avg exit velo93.5 mph
Ground ball39%
Line drive24%
Fly ball31%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+56.4%significant
n=458 games · 21/57 HR when active
+46.3%significant
n=458 games · 80/319 HR when active
+28.4%significant
n=458 games · 24/84 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-07-28
// TONIGHT
0 / 0HELPING · IN PLAY
No DNA factors in play tonight
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
1.68× HR rate
185 yes / 272 no · 100 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
1.56× HR rate
57 yes / 401 no · 102 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+46%
319 yes / 139 no · 102 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+28%
84 yes / 374 no · 102 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+21%
98 yes / 363 no · 102 HRs
// 23 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
+20%
3 yes / 463 no · 103 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−17%
260 yes / 206 no · 103 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−15%
373 yes / 92 no · 103 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+15%
57 yes / 409 no · 103 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−13%
105 yes / 207 no · 70 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+11%
103 yes / 359 no · 102 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+10%
215 yes / 249 no · 102 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+10%
10 yes / 437 no · 99 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+9%
84 yes / 352 no · 95 HRs
Playing at home
+9%
238 yes / 228 no · 103 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+8%
207 yes / 255 no · 102 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−8%
61 yes / 403 no · 102 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+7%
55 yes / 336 no · 85 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−6%
455 yes / 11 no · 103 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
277 yes / 184 no · 102 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
76 yes / 371 no · 99 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
250 yes / 196 no · 98 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
8 yes / 458 no · 103 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
17 yes / 448 no · 103 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
197 yes / 269 no · 103 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
131 yes / 335 no · 103 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 458 no · 102 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Pete Alonso across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.