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Jorge Soler
DH · RHB · RHP · LAA
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Jorge Soler, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 2-0 | 100% | +77.6% |
| A | 0-2 | 0% | -100.0% |
| B | 0-1 | 0% | -100.0% |
Combined 2-3 · n=5 · ROI -29.0% · avg CLV -39.9 pts · beat close 0%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 0.6
Singlesavg 0.2
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 1.2
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.7
Walksavg 0.3
Splits
Career n=383 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-01
xStats luck
xwOBA0.280
wOBA0.297
delta+0.017 hot
n=380 PA
Spray chart
411 balls in play since 2025Balls in play411
HR rate6.6%
Hard-hit (95+)43%
Avg exit velo89.3 mph
Ground ball41%
Line drive25%
Fly ball26%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-26.3%significant
n=318 games · 7/58 HR when active
+25.6%significant
n=342 games · 17/81 HR when active
-17.5%small sample
n=342 games · 37/236 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
3rd time through order vs starter
1.59× HR rate
201 yes / 143 no · 59 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+46%
52 yes / 168 no · 35 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−32%
191 yes / 153 no · 59 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+32%
26 yes / 317 no · 59 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+31%
36 yes / 307 no · 59 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−26%
58 yes / 260 no · 57 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+26%
81 yes / 261 no · 58 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+21%
144 yes / 194 no · 58 HRs
// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+25%
4 yes / 324 no · 57 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−18%
236 yes / 106 no · 58 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+17%
45 yes / 248 no · 48 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−16%
65 yes / 278 no · 58 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−14%
93 yes / 235 no · 57 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−12%
160 yes / 183 no · 58 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+10%
102 yes / 241 no · 59 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−7%
124 yes / 215 no · 58 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+6%
181 yes / 150 no · 55 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−6%
26 yes / 318 no · 59 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
85 yes / 259 no · 59 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
45 yes / 297 no · 58 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 343 no · 59 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
131 yes / 213 no · 59 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
63 yes / 279 no · 58 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
173 yes / 171 no · 59 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
249 yes / 94 no · 59 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 344 no · 59 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 342 no · 58 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Jorge Soler across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.