← BACK TO SLATE
Willy Adames
SS · RHB · RHP · SFG
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Willy Adames, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 3-0 | 100% | +215.2% |
| A | 0-5 | 0% | -100.0% |
| B | 2-3 | 40% | +176.4% |
Combined 5-8 · n=13 · ROI +79.1% · avg CLV +0.2 pts · beat close 60%
Matchup
Willy Adames (RHB) vs Ryan Feltner RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Ryan Feltner's arsenal × how Willy Adames hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9Plate Appearancesavg 3.9
Hitsavg 0.9
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.7
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 1.2
Walksavg 0.2
Tonight's lines
2026-07-03 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=355 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-28
xStats luck
xwOBA0.313
wOBA0.329
delta+0.016 hot
n=354 PA
Spray chart
673 balls in play since 2025· wind 7 mph cross-windBalls in play673
HR rate6.8%
Hard-hit (95+)43%
Avg exit velo88.7 mph
Ground ball32%
Line drive23%
Fly ball36%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+73.1%significant
n=423 games · 55/302 HR when active
+45.7%significant
n=423 games · 20/91 HR when active
+44.0%significant
n=425 games · 19/87 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-30
// TONIGHT
4 / 4HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +73% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
- +34% HR rate when hr-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10).
- +33% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
- +20% HR rate when rested (2+ days off).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight
1.73× HR rate
302 yes / 121 no · 66 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+46%
91 yes / 332 no · 66 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+44%
87 yes / 338 no · 66 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
0.60× HR rate
342 yes / 84 no · 67 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+36%
188 yes / 237 no · 66 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)tonight
+34%
133 yes / 294 no · 67 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+33%
254 yes / 173 no · 67 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+33%
170 yes / 257 no · 67 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−22%
54 yes / 314 no · 57 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−21%
133 yes / 294 no · 67 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)tonight
+20%
17 yes / 409 no · 67 HRs
// 17 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+29%
14 yes / 413 no · 67 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−22%
8 yes / 404 no · 66 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+18%
58 yes / 365 no · 66 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+18%
225 yes / 188 no · 66 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+18%
106 yes / 319 no · 66 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
+15%
2 yes / 425 no · 67 HRs
Playing at home
−14%
222 yes / 205 no · 67 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−13%
246 yes / 181 no · 67 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+13%
54 yes / 358 no · 66 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+11%
83 yes / 197 no · 46 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+10%
66 yes / 337 no · 66 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−9%
219 yes / 203 no · 67 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+8%
58 yes / 369 no · 67 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+6%
178 yes / 242 no · 66 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
43 yes / 384 no · 67 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 423 no · 66 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Willy Adames across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.