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Willy Adames
SS · RHB · RHP · SFG
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Willy Adames, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 2-3 | 40% | -31.8% |
| A | 4-5 | 44% | -22.5% |
| B | 8-5 | 62% | +92.4% |
Combined 14-13 · n=27 · ROI +31.1% · avg CLV -0.0 pts · beat close 45%
Matchup
Willy Adames (RHB) vs Bryan King LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Bryan King's arsenal × how Willy Adames hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0Plate Appearancesavg 4.0
Hitsavg 0.8
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.2
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.0
Walksavg 0.5
Splits
Career n=2,584 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-08-10
xStats luck
xwOBA0.296
wOBA0.311
delta+0.015 hot
n=489 PA
Spray chart
760 balls in play since 2025Balls in play760
HR rate6.7%
Hard-hit (95+)41%
Avg exit velo87.8 mph
Ground ball33%
Line drive22%
Fly ball35%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+75.7%significant
n=454 games · 61/339 HR when active
+38.9%significant
n=457 games · 20/95 HR when active
+36.6%significant
n=457 games · 37/198 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-11
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
1.76× HR rate
339 yes / 115 no · 71 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
0.57× HR rate
370 yes / 88 no · 72 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+39%
95 yes / 362 no · 71 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+37%
198 yes / 259 no · 71 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+32%
265 yes / 194 no · 72 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+30%
202 yes / 257 no · 72 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+30%
19 yes / 439 no · 72 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+29%
102 yes / 353 no · 71 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−27%
58 yes / 336 no · 62 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+26%
15 yes / 444 no · 72 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+25%
139 yes / 320 no · 72 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−21%
133 yes / 326 no · 72 HRs
// 16 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−22%
8 yes / 436 no · 71 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+18%
77 yes / 357 no · 71 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+18%
46 yes / 413 no · 72 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+18%
242 yes / 201 no · 71 HRs
Playing at home
−15%
238 yes / 221 no · 72 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
+15%
2 yes / 457 no · 72 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+14%
66 yes / 388 no · 71 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+9%
62 yes / 382 no · 71 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+6%
85 yes / 221 no · 51 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−6%
223 yes / 231 no · 72 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−5%
262 yes / 197 no · 72 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
neutral
61 yes / 398 no · 72 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
187 yes / 264 no · 71 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
115 yes / 342 no · 71 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 454 no · 71 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Willy Adames across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.