Rafael Devers

1B · LHB · RHP · SFG

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

COL

Starter

Ryan Feltner (RHP)

Stadium

Coors Field

Model HR%

17.5%

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Rafael Devers, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	2-0	100%	+59.6%
A	2-4	33%	-43.7%
B	3-2	60%	-8.4%

Combined 7-6 · n=13 · ROI -14.2% · avg CLV -6.7 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Rafael Devers (LHB) vs Ryan Feltner RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Ryan Feltner RHP · season · 59.5 IP · 256 BF

BAA

.230

wOBA

.361

SLG

.413

ISO

.183

WHIP

1.33

HR/9

1.21

BB%

10.2%

15.6%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

4.1%

HH%

41.4%

FB%

31.0%

HR/FB%

17.8%

Rafael Devers hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	83-341	.243	.455	.211	15	8.3%	31.4%
vs RHP	61-225	.271	.533	.262	12	8.5%	31.1%

Pitch-type matchup

Ryan Feltner's arsenal × how Rafael Devers hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Ryan Feltner throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	30%	94.1	13%	.439
TOPSlider	19%	88.7	23%	.318
TOPChangeup	17%	85.2	46%	.274
TOPSinker	14%	93.9	8%	.326
TOPSweeper	13%	82.7	38%	.282
Curveball	7%	79.3	22%	.503

Rafael Devers vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	1683	34%	.489	95.9
TOPSlider	383	28%	.427	90.7
TOPChangeup	385	30%	.368	92.1
TOPSinker	570	13%	.366	92.0
TOPSweeper	215	32%	.411	89.7
Curveball	171	29%	.645	96.1

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

80%8/10 · L10 · avg 0.9

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9

Plate Appearancesavg 3.9

Hitsavg 0.9

Singlesavg 0.4

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 2.2

Home Runsavg 0.4

Strikeoutsavg 0.9

Walksavg 0.4

Tonight's lines

2026-07-03 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	79%	—	—	—	Sign in to save	Sign in

Splits

Career n=372 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-07-01

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	83-341	.243	.455	.211	25	1	15	31	31.4%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	22-116	.190	.302	.112	4	0	3	10	31.9%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	61-225	.271	.533	.262	21	1	12	21	31.1%
Last 15 days recent form	11-42	.262	.643	.381	1	0	5	5	23.8%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.332

wOBA0.344

delta+0.012 hot

n=371 PA

Spray chart

661 balls in play since 2025· wind 7 mph cross-wind

Balls in play661

HR rate7.6%

Hard-hit (95+)55%

Avg exit velo93.4 mph

Ground ball42%

Line drive22%

Fly ball31%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+68.3%significant

n=426 games · 49/195 HR when active

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

-35.1%significant

n=409 games · 6/59 HR when active

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+49.9%significant

n=426 games · 22/78 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-30

// TONIGHT

0 / 0HELPING · IN PLAY

No DNA factors in play tonight

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

1.68× HR rate

195 yes / 231 no · 81 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+50%

78 yes / 348 no · 81 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

0.65× HR rate

59 yes / 350 no · 77 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−27%

202 yes / 222 no · 80 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+24%

245 yes / 166 no · 78 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

+23%

17 yes / 411 no · 81 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

−22%

65 yes / 358 no · 81 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+21%

198 yes / 71 no · 51 HRs

// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−27%

10 yes / 412 no · 80 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−15%

5 yes / 424 no · 81 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−15%

41 yes / 388 no · 81 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+13%

78 yes / 345 no · 81 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

−13%

281 yes / 148 no · 81 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

−13%

180 yes / 249 no · 81 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

−10%

284 yes / 139 no · 81 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

+10%

132 yes / 297 no · 81 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

−10%

342 yes / 86 no · 81 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

+9%

32 yes / 397 no · 81 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

−7%

166 yes / 254 no · 80 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

neutral

68 yes / 300 no · 67 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

neutral

77 yes / 349 no · 81 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

neutral

45 yes / 377 no · 80 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

neutral

176 yes / 253 no · 81 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

neutral

177 yes / 252 no · 81 HRs

Playing at home

neutral

230 yes / 199 no · 81 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 429 no · 81 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 423 no · 81 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-07-01	4	1	0	0	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-06-30	4	1	0	1	2	0	1-for-2 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 BB
2026-06-29	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-06-28	4	1	0	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 2 K
2026-06-27	3	2	0	2	0	1	2-for-3 · 2 HR · 4 RBI · 2 R · 1 K
2026-06-26	4	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI
2026-06-25	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-06-24	4	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-06-23	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 RBI
2026-06-21	4	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Rafael Devers across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.