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Rafael Devers
1B · LHB · RHP · SFG
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Rafael Devers, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 3-1 | 75% | +20.3% |
| A | 2-8 | 20% | -19.9% |
| B | 3-3 | 50% | +16.5% |
Combined 8-12 · n=20 · ROI -0.9% · avg CLV -8.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup
Rafael Devers (LHB) vs Kyle Freeland LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Kyle Freeland's arsenal × how Rafael Devers hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9Plate Appearancesavg 3.9
Hitsavg 0.6
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.2
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 1.0
Walksavg 0.6
Tonight's lines
2026-08-14 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=2,563 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-08-12
xStats luck
xwOBA0.332
wOBA0.347
delta+0.015 hot
n=519 PA
Spray chart
756 balls in play since 2025Balls in play756
HR rate7.8%
Hard-hit (95+)54%
Avg exit velo93.3 mph
Ground ball42%
Line drive21%
Fly ball32%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+60.6%significant
n=461 games · 52/205 HR when active
-34.4%significant
n=443 games · 8/71 HR when active
+52.0%significant
n=461 games · 25/86 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-11
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
1.61× HR rate
205 yes / 256 no · 90 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
1.52× HR rate
86 yes / 375 no · 90 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
0.66× HR rate
71 yes / 372 no · 86 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+30%
224 yes / 74 no · 59 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−26%
213 yes / 246 no · 89 HRs
// 23 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−27%
10 yes / 447 no · 89 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+19%
90 yes / 368 no · 90 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+18%
18 yes / 445 no · 90 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−17%
373 yes / 90 no · 90 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−16%
47 yes / 417 no · 90 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−15%
303 yes / 161 no · 90 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−14%
73 yes / 384 no · 90 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+13%
86 yes / 375 no · 90 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+11%
35 yes / 429 no · 90 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+8%
211 yes / 253 no · 90 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+8%
179 yes / 275 no · 89 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+8%
56 yes / 401 no · 89 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+7%
132 yes / 332 no · 90 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−6%
215 yes / 249 no · 90 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+6%
263 yes / 181 no · 87 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−5%
7 yes / 457 no · 90 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
72 yes / 325 no · 75 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
246 yes / 218 no · 90 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
183 yes / 281 no · 90 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
328 yes / 129 no · 90 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 464 no · 90 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 457 no · 90 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Rafael Devers across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.